February 14, 2017 | CBonds
We are delighted to announce Sergei Guriev, Chief Economist of EBRD as a keynote speaker of the VI Cbonds Emerging Markets Bond Conference to be held in London on April 6-7, 2017.
Sergei Guriev joined the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in September 2016. Professor Guriev has a distinguished track record in transition economics and is currently teaching at Sciences Po in Paris. Prior to that, he was Rector of the New Economic School in Moscow.
Sergei Guriev will make the keynote address for the participants of the VI Cbonds Emerging Markets Bond Conference on April 7 in the morning.
Book your place now: http://cbonds-congress.com/events/361/registration/
Mr. Guriev gave a short interview exclusively for Cbonds.
- How do you think, where are the key macroeconomic risks for EM investors in 2017?
First of all, monetary policy in the US. Potential interest rates increases can reverse capital flows from EMs to the US.
Secondly it is the slowdown in China. The last decade of growth has been supported by unprecedented growth of credit. This expansion of credit is unsustainable and is unlikely to continue.
And lastly - protectionism. Most EMs are net beneficiaries of globalisation. Global trade/GDP ratios have been stagnating for a few years and if anything the new US government’s stance is unlikely to promote trade liberalisation.
- The implications of the new geopolitics – where are the risks for investors?
Geopolitical and security risks are a huge problem for many EMs. Investors know how to deal with exchange rate and interest volatility but they don’t like shifting borders and terrorist attacks that have a permanent negative effect on returns and yields.
- What do you think about new US president’s economic agenda and its implications for the EM
- I think we still need to wait and see. Likely implications include protectionism, higher interest rates in the US and stronger dollar - all of which bear bad news for the EMs.
- What are major catalysts of EM growth?
The growth will come from Advanced Economies’ investors’ search for yield. Whichever EMs have better macroeconomic framework, corporate governance and investment climate, will be able to attract foreign capital and grow.