November 17, 2015 |
|Inflation in Russia in 2015 could exceed 12.4% if the current level of prices for Urals crude oil remains the same, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Tuesday.|
"We forecasted 12.4% for the end of the year. If oil [Urals crude oil price - TASS] remains below $40 per barrel - the current level - the figure will be slightly larger, but not significantly," he told reporters.
Earlier chairperson of the Russian Accounts Chamber Tatyana Golikova expects inflation to exceed planned level this year and to reach 13-13.2%.
"According to our estimates, in 11 months inflation may already meet the annual target of 2015 /in November 2015 - 0.9%/. In case this trend remains inflation may reach 13-13.2%," she said.
According to Golikova, as of November 9, 2015 inflation had reached 11.5%. She added that inflation growth was triggered by a surge of prices for fruits and vegetables by 2.5% in the period from 3 to 9 November.
Base case scenario implies slowdown of inflation from 12.2% this year to 6.4% in 2016.
Earlier on Friday Russia’s Central Bank Chief Elvira Nabiullina said inflation will continue to decline at the beginning of 2016, and will amount to 12-13% at the end of 2015. "Inflation is slowing down; we expect it to fall to 12-13% by the end of this year. According to our forecast, inflation will continue to decline quite rapidly next year as moderately tight monetary policy, restrained and low demand will contribute to it," Nabiullina said. She added that reaching target inflation will not interfere with the economic growth. "In making decisions on monetary policy, we always keep in mind the balance of risks for inflation and the economy. Reaching target inflation will not hinder economic growth," the regulator’s Chief said.
The Bank of Russia believes that consumer price growth in Russia this year will be at 12-13%, but early next year inflation will start to decelerate sharply because of base effect. At the beginning of 2016 the regulator expects a significant reduction in annual inflation, which, in particular, will be due to the high value of this indicator at the beginning of 2015. The Central Bank expects inflation to decrease in 2016 to 5.5-6.5%.