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Commerzbank - Ukraine Macroeconomic Outlook

October 06, 2011 | Commerzbank

Ukraine is gradually recovering from the 2008 crisis, although it carries a high degree of vulnerability to external demand and commodity prices. Its output is still below the level in 2007 as opposed to CIS peers.

GDP growth is estimated to have grown by 5.3% in Q1, slowed to 3.8% in Q2 and rebounded in H2 on a strong harvest. Growth could reach 4.5% this year and slow considerably in 2012 on global demand. Higher social expenses and state investments are expected to give short-term support to domestic demand in H2 2011.

Rising imports and a likely deterioration of Ukraine’s terms of trade - defined as steel export versus energy import prices - pose a risk to Ukraine’s current account balance. It stood at 2.8% of GDP in August YTD and may reach 6% in 2012 in case the current gas contract applies. These increased exchange rate risks due to Ukraine’s external financing constraints. 

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