Index group::RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator (publication was suspended since 14.03.2016)



Organization responsible for index calculation:Renaissance Capital - NES

Index group description
The RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator is a joint project between the New Economic School and Renaissance Capital. The index is published on the 10th day of each month.

A total of 108 monthly time series (among which are surveys, commodity prices, exchange rates, real activity, labour market and money market data) are input variables. The data cover a time interval from Jan 1996 to the present.

Our methodology is based on the same approach adopted by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to construct similar indices. Moreover, our methodology relies on relatively recent advances in modern time-series econometrics.

The main idea behind the index is that real GDP growth represents a good summary measure of economic activity. However, GDP data are published with a considerable delay. The bulk of the information is available sooner than GDP data via many economic indicators but each of these time series represents only one aspect of economic activity. Our model seeks to bring all of this information together to deliver one number, which serves as what we believe to be the most accurate forecast of GDP.

Included indices
RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator, YoY, %
RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator, QoQ, s/a, %
RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator, QoQ, %

Complete index description in Russian (*.pdf)
Complete index description in English (*.pdf)