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August 06, 2014
Cbonds EM

Cbonds EM Monthly Newsletter, July 2014

Description
Cbonds EM Monthly Newsletter, July 2014
August 05, 2014
UFS IC

UniCredit Bank, RUSAL. UniCredit dares make a bond placement

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    According to estimations of HSBC the composite PMI index of business activity in China in July reduced by 0.8 point to 51.6 points. ·    According to Markit the PMI composite index of business activity in Japan in July increased by 0.2 point to 50.2 points. ·    Business activity in New-York in July, according to ISM, considerably boosted growth rates, the business activity index made the leap from the level of 60.5 points to 68.1 points. ·    The consumer price index in Russia in July improved by 0.5% on a monthly basis versus 0.6% one month earlier.   Debt Market ·    On Monday the local debt market closed the trading without showing a single dynamics. ·    The benchmark issues’ yield slightly changed: the yield of OFZ 26206 grew by 2 b. p. to 9.46% per annum; the yield of OFZ 26207 grew by 4 b. p. to 9.58%. ·    Yesterday UniCredit Bank announced its entry into the primary market.   Comments ·    UniCredit Bank will hold the book building of bonds BO-22 in the amount of 10 billion rubles on August 5-6. The target rate for the first coupon is set at the level of 10.30-10.50% per annum, which corresponds to the yield to the annual put at 10.57-10.78% per annum (G-spread –190-210 b. p.). The participation is interesting on the upper border of the proposed range. ·    RUSAL plans to close the deal on refinancing two syndicated loans in the near future. The news will support the quotes of the more liquid Rusal Bratsk, 08.
July 28, 2014
ROSBANK

Eco Analysis - Russia: CBR hawkish rhetoric takes shape

July 25, 2014
ROSBANK

Russia: The CBR is reinforcing verbal signals to justify high policy rates

July 23, 2014
ROSBANK

Europe/Russia: a tipping point on sanctions

July 15, 2014
Bank ZENIT

Ежедневный обзор долговых рынков

July 14, 2014
Bank ZENIT

Ежедневный обзор долговых рынков

July 11, 2014
Bank ZENIT

Ежедневный обзор долговых рынков

July 07, 2014
UFS IC

The Debt market of the Russian Federation will start the week with neutral dynamics. Comments: TCS-Bank, Mechel, Evraz

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         On Friday there came out the data on the consumer price index in Russia in June. Inflation slows down and makes up 0.6% against 0.9% in May, but in annual terms remains above the target level of the government – 7.8% against 6.0%. ·         In the currency market of the Russian the ruble has stabilized. ·         Energy prices continued declining gradually on Friday.   Debt Market ·         At the beginning of the current week Russian Eurobonds will reflect the changes, which took place over the weekend, in the balance of power between the militias of the Eastern Ukraine and troops of Kyiv. ·         The success of the Ukrainian army has sharply reduced the likelihood of the peaceful resolution of the military conflict, which will put pressure on the Russian currency debt securities. ·         On Monday morning, the yield of UST-10 is located near the levels of the closure of trading on Thursday at 2.64-2.65% per annum. ·         On Friday in connection with celebration of Independence Day in the United States and the absence of trades in the market of US Treasuries, in the segment of Russian Eurobonds there was almost no trading activity. The yield of issues RUSSIA-23 and RUSSIA-43 decreased by 1 b. p. to 4.43% and 5.48% per annum, respectively. ·         The market of local bonds ended Friday in the red zone. ·         Activity in the primary market is low. ·         Today it starts the book building of two issues of CBM. The placement is considered as interesting.   Comments ·         According to media reports, TCS-Bank changes the scheme of work with overdue debts and considers creating its own collection agency. In our opinion, the work with overdue debts by its own forces may have a positive impact on financial performance of the bank. At the same time, the yield of Eurobond of TCS-Bank AKBHC-18 (YTM - 11.26%, Z-spread - 990 b. p.) is only by 25 b. p. above the level of the end of February, and we expect no better dynamics of the market from this issue in the coming weeks. ·         Another plan of salvation of Mechel involves the creation of Far Eastern Mining and Metallurgical Company. Activity of creditors, the government and the companies themselves indicates that the "debt problem" of Mechel and Evraz is recognized as the most relevant and is under state control.
July 04, 2014
Bank ZENIT

Ежедневный обзор долговых рынков

June 30, 2014
UFS IC

The debt market will start the week with neutral dynamics. Comments: TMK, Renaissance Credit.

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         On Friday it took place the EU summit in Brussels, at which there was signed the Association of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with the European Union. ·         Energy prices have stabilized and are waiting for the driver to the further movement. ·         In the sea of Okhotsk it was launched Russia's largest oil and gas production platform Berkut. ·         In the currency market the ruble continues to appreciate.     Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds continued to fall on Friday after declinig on Thursday against the decision of Moody's on change of the outlook on the rating of the Russian Federation to negative. ·         The unresolved issue on EU sanctions, ongoing military operations in the East of Ukraine and falling oil continues to put pressure on the market. ·         The yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-23 rose on Friday by 8 b.p. to the level of 4.32 percent per annum. The yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-43 increased by 5 b.p. to 5.35%. ·         During today's trading we expect neutral dynamics on the market of the Russian foreign currency debt. ·         Among the events in the primary market we note the beginning of the road-show of subordinated Eurobonds in francs of VTB Bank. Meetings with investors will begin tomorrow in Switzerland. ·         Positive external background and strong ruble supported the local debt market. The indexes closed with upwards dynamics. Issuers reduced activity in the primary market.   Comments ·         On Friday the Board of Directors of TMK decided to hold the additional issue of 56 million shares (6% of the authorized capital). The company said that it plans to place securities in Russia mainly among Russian investors, received $140-150 mln will be directed to current projects and the debt reduction. We positively evaluate the additional emission from the viewpoint of the impact on the credit profile of TMK and, accordingly, on the prices of Eurobonds of the company. We estimate the potential for the outstripping reduction of the yield of issue TRUBRU-20 (YTM – 7.13%, Z-spread - 530 b.p.) at 20-25 b.p. ·         S&P downgraded the rating of the counteragent of Renaissance Credit Bank to "B" from "B+". The downgrade is negative for the bonds of the bank.
June 27, 2014
UFS IC

Gazprom, Alfa-Bank. Russian Eurobonds adjusted on Thursday after strong growth at the beginning of the week

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         This morning there were published the data from Japan on household spending, which were much worse than the forecast and made up -8.0% ·         Today it will takes place the EU summit in Brussels, where it is expected the signing of the Association with the EU, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. It will be discussed the situation in Ukraine and possible new sanctions against Russia. ·         Energy prices on the lack of news from Iraq started declining. ·         The cost of the bi-currency basket has been declining for the fifth day in a row.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds declined on Thursday. The yield of RUSSIA-23 on Thursday rose by 6 basis points to the level of 4.24%, and the issue RUSSIA-43 increased by 5 b.p. to 5.30% p.a. ·         In the course of trading on Friday it is expected the market recovery after yesterday's decline, in the absence of significant drivers to the further decline. ·         In the primary market after the issue in Euro of Sberbank, the Eurobond in the single currency in the amount of 1 billion was placed on Thursday by Gazprombank. The demand for 5-year issue exceeded supply by more than 5 times. ·         Leading indicators of the ruble-denominated debt market finished the day showing mixed dynamics: in government bonds – the growth, municipal and corporate segments – the weak reduction. The market has been supported this week by appreciating ruble.   Comments ·         Gazprom said yesterday about the possibility of issuing Eurobonds in RMB or Singapore dollars and the intention to obtain the rating of the Chinese Agency Dagong. Given the West's policy of sanctions and on the background of large-scale cooperation with the PRC, loans in Asian currencies, of course, are very interesting for Gazprom, but the volume of such issuance and costs in comparison with loans, for example, in EUR remain open. ·         Alfa-Bank has completed the book building of bonds BO-11 in the amount of 5 billion rubles at the yield reduction. The potential yield is limited to 20-30 b. p.  
June 26, 2014
UFS IC

LUKOIL, Tatfondbank. Eurobonds of the Russian Federation demonstrated neutral dynamics on Wednesday, but can rise on Thursday

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         There were submitted disappointing data on the final US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the value of which was significantly worse than the forecast and made up -2.9%. ·         Good contrast to GDP figures was the index of business activity in the U.S. services sector, which was by 2.6 points above expectations and amounted to 61.2 points. ·         Tomorrow it will take place the EU summit in Brussels, where it is expected the signing of the Association with the EU, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. ·         Yesterday, the Federation Council has cancelled the resolution on the use of Russian armed forces in the territory of Ukraine.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds demonstrated on Wednesday neutral dynamics on the background of the possibility of termination of the ceasefire in Ukraine and imposition of new sanctions, though declining yield of UST due to the weak GDP data of the USA supported the market. ·         The yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-23 didn’t change on Wednesday, remaining at the level of 4.18% per annum, and the yield of longer issue RUSSIA-43 declined by 2 b.p. to 5.25% per annum. ·         In the course of trading on Thursday we expect moderate upward dynamics in the market against Wednesday phone discussion of the situation in Ukraine between the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine. ·         However, the opportunity of the imposition of sanctions by the US and the EU later this week will deter investors’ interest in the Russian foreign currency debt. ·         The strengthening of the ruble and the decrease in geopolitical tension supported the ruble bond market. Leading indicators of the ruble-denominated debt market closed in the positive territory.   Comments ·         LUKOIL adjusts the strategy, reducing the plans on capital expenditures on the background of the difficult situation in the international capital markets, follows from the interview of Bloomberg with the Vice-President of the company Leonid Fedun. Voiced by top-manager plans, if implemented, will have a positive impact on the credit profile of the issuer, since the main aim of the changes is the optimization of costs depending on the situation in the debt markets. Plans of LUKOIL on SPO and accumulation of funds for M&A also improve the prospects of the credit metrics of the issuer. Among Eurobonds of the Issuer we note issue LUKOIL-18 (YTM – 3.42%, Z-spread - 208 b.p.). ·         Moody's raised the long-term debt rating of Tatfondbank to "B2" from "B3" with "stable" outlook. The news is neutral for the bonds of the bank.  
June 25, 2014
UFS IC

VimpelCom, ALROSA. Russian Eurobonds demonstrated the explosive growth on Tuesday

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Statistics of the USA continues to support the investor sentiment. ·         In the United States at 16:30 GMT there will be submitted the data on final GDP for the first quarter of 2014, we expect the value of 1.5%. ·         Energy prices in the absence of significant news from Iraq will stabilize at current levels. ·         Yesterday's address by Vladimir Putin to the Federation Council with a request to cancel previously issued permission on the usage of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine strongly supported the ruble. ·         Gazprom and Austrian OMV signed the final investment decision for construction of South Stream in Austria.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds demonstrated the explosive growth during the trading on Tuesday on news about the cancellation of the resolution of the scenarios on the entry of Russian troops to the territory of Ukraine. ·         The yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-23 decreased on Tuesday by 27 b. p. to 4.18% per annum, which is the minimum value of the yield from the placement start. ·         Against the news about the agreement of Gazprom on South Stream among corporate bonds, the leaders of growth on Tuesday were long securities of the gas monopoly GAZPRU-34 and GAZPRU-37. ·         In the course of trades on Wednesday we expect the upward dynamics in the Eurobond market, although some pressure on the market will be exerted by the news on new sanctions prepared by the West. ·         In the evening the dynamics of the market of Eurobonds through the change of the yield of UST will be influenced by the statistics of the U.S. GDP and durable goods. ·         The strengthening of the ruble and the decrease in geopolitical tension supported the ruble bond market.     Comments ·         The S&P on Tuesday raised its forecast for rating of VimpelCom to positive. The Agency noted that in the case of the decrease of the debt to level 2.5x for indicator Total debt/EBITDA, the rating can be raised by 1 degree within 18 months. We expect a positive influence of the increase in the forecast for the rating and tone of the comments of S&P on quotations of traded Eurobonds of VimpelCom. We recommend to pay attention to dollar issue VIP-21 (YTM - 5.84%, Z-spread - 379 b. p.), the potential for the yield reduction of which is 25-30 b. p. in the medium term. ·         ALROSA has published financial results under IFRS for the first quarter of 2014. We positively evaluate the statements of ALROSA in terms of the credit profile of the issuer and expect that the improvement will support the company's bonds.
June 24, 2014
UFS IC

Sberbank, Bank ZENIT. Successful placement of Eurobonds by Sberbank opens a window for Russian borrowers

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News   ·         The data on PMI from European countries were disappointing and below forecasts and previous values. ·         On Friday, 27.06.14, it will be held the EU summit in Brussels, where it is expected the signing of the association with the EU, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. ·         The armistice was reached in Ukraine, it was proposed last Friday in Kyiv, but just yesterday was supported by the representatives of the militia, with the assistance of the OSCE and Russia. ·         The EU imposed a full trade embargo on the Crimea.     Debt Market   ·         Russian Eurobonds started the week with neutral dynamics. The yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-23 decreased by 2 b. p. to 4.45% per annum, and issue RUSSIA-43 decreased by 1 b. p. to 5.49% per annum. ·         The main event on Tuesday consisted in the placement of Sberbank of the Eurobond in the amount of 1 billion Euros. The placement opens a window to the capital market to other Russian issuers. ·         In the course of trading on Tuesday, the main driver for the market will be the news of the consent of the leaders of the militia of Eastern Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire. ·         In the evening the course of trading of Russian securities through the movement in the UST can be influenced by the statistics of the U.S. consumer confidence and new home sales. ·         The indexes of the local debt market closed showing weak growth. Players are waiting for the decision of the summit of the EU on sanctions against Russia.     Comments   ·         Sberbank placed on Monday placed a 5.5-year Eurobond in the amount of 1 billion Euros at 3.35% per annum at the premium to swaps at the level of 260 b. p. Given the excess of demand over supply by more than 2 times (the order book exceeded 2 billion euros), the premium to the swaps at the level of 260 b. p., as well as a large volume of issue (which will support its liquidity), we confirm our expectations of growth in the secondary market after yesterday we gave a recommendation on the participation in the offering. ·         Bank ZENIT conducts book building for bonds BO-13 and BO-14 in the total amount of 11 billion rubles. The participation in the placement is interesting.
ROSBANK

Eco Analysis - Russia: Poor Russian May data reflects post-shock adjustment 

June 23, 2014
UFS IC

Vnesheconombank, MMK. Data from China and expensive oil will support the debt market on Monday

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Today at 5:45 Moscow time there was published the manufacturing PMI of China from HSBC. The indicator amounted to 50.8 points against forecasted 49.7 and the previous value of 49.4 points. This is the highest result and the first time this year, when the index is higher than 50 points, indicating the growth of the Chinese industry. ·         Today, it is expected to yield the data on indexes of business activity in manufacturing and services sector from other countries. ·         Tensions in Iraq continue to grow. ·         In Russia on Friday there was submitted a significant portion of the statistics.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds will start the week with neutral dynamics after last week the yield of Eurobonds RUSSIA-23 grew by 10 b. p. to 4.60% per annum. ·         Strong PMI data from China and oil prices above 115 $/bbl. for Brent were outweighed by the news about the unauthorized withdrawal of gas by Ukraine on Thursday last week and ongoing military operations in the East of the country. ·         The market of Eurobonds of the Russian Federation continues to be approximately at the same levels, at which it ended the May rally, when the yield of Eurobonds RUSSIA-23 for the month fell by more than 100 b. p. ·         In case of the relatively stable situation the market this week can experience the placement of Eurobonds of Sberbank, which conducted road shows on Thursday and Friday, June 19-20. ·         Also today, the road-show of Eurobonds will be held by Gazprombank, which will probably wait for Sberbank before returning to the market. ·         The indexes of the local market debt are traded without demonstrating single dynamics. ·         ZENITH and Absolut Bank started the book building. ·         The issue of Credit Europe Bank series BO-18 is interesting for purchase in the secondary market.   Comments ·         VEB on Friday submitted the results for 1Q14 under IFRS. The bank's net interest income and the value generated for impairment reserves almost have not changed, but the Bank received the net loss of almost 12 billion rubles against 2 billion rubles a year earlier. We neutrally evaluate the published statements of the Bank, as losses are connected not with the deterioration of the loan portfolio, and, mainly, with the exchange rate fluctuations. We do not expect significant negative reactions in the Eurobonds of the Bank. In contrast, short and liquid securities of the Bank, as, for example, dollar VEBBNK-18 (YTM – 4.60%, Z-spread - 302 b. p.), can attract additional interest on the background of the continuing uncertainty regarding the development of the situation around Ukraine. ·         MMK has published the statements for the first quarter of 2014 under IFRS. Statements are expectedly weak, but we note positive trends in comparison with the previous quarter.
June 20, 2014
UFS IC

The day results are positive. Thanks to the Fed. Comments: Gazprombank

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         On Thursday it took place a meeting of the Bank of Switzerland, where it was decided to leave the key interest rate, as expected, unchanged at the minimal level of 0.25%. ·         Tensions in Iraq continue to grow. ·         In Russia yesterday there were submitted the data on the volume of gold and foreign currency reserves on June 13, 2014, the value was $468.7 billion, which is by $1.5 billion higher than the value of June 01. ·         The foreign exchange market after a slight stabilization has indicated the significant strengthening of the ruble against major currencies and baskets on the background of the growing prices for energy resources.   Debt Market ·         The local debt market reflected the decision of the Fed on the long-term maintenance of the simulative monetary policy. ·         The benchmark Federal Loan Bond 26206 and Federal Loan Bond 26207 decreased by 10 b. p. and 6 b. p., respectively. ·         Volgograd region placed bonds in the amount of 5 billion rubles with the coupon of 10.75% per annum. ·         High activity persists in the primary market of the corporate debt.   Comments ·         On June 24 Gazprombank will hold the book building for 3-year bonds series BO-09 in the amount of 10 billion rubles, the Bank has not announced the guidance of the coupon rate and term of the put. This year, Gazprombank has already entered the primary market with a 3-year bond Gazprombank, BO-08 with the put in a year, and we assume that the proposed new issue BO-09 will have the same term of the put. According to our estimates, the fair yield of issue Gazprombank, BO-09 is in the range of 9.5-9.7% per annum, and the placement may be interesting at the yield of not less than 9.8 percent.
June 19, 2014
ROSBANK

Quarterly Review - Russia: Moderating growth is here to stay

UFS IC

На рынке локального долга сохраняется боковик.  Комментарии:АКБ ПЕРЕСВЕТ

Description
Мировые рынки и макроэкономика ·    Заседание ФРС подтвердило ожидания: ключевая процентная ставка не была изменена, а объемы программы количественного смягчения QE сокращены на $10 млрд. уже пятый раз подряд - до $35 млрд. в месяц. ·    На рынке энергоресурсов из-за напряженности в Ираке цены продолжают сохраняться на высоких уровнях. ·    В России в среду вышли данные по состоянию промышленного производства. Результат значительно превысил ожидания и составил 2,8%.   Долговой рынок ·    В государственных облигациях, несмотря на улучшение геополитического фактора, сохраняется негативная динамика. ·    Активность субъектов РФ по выходу на первичный рынок заимствований растет. ·    Размещения РСХБ и КБ Пересвет прошли успешно.   Комментарии ·    Банк «ПЕРЕСВЕТ» завершил book building дебютного выпуска 3-летних облигаций серии 03 объемом 2 млрд руб. Предложенная эмитентом доходность интересна. Мы подтверждаем справедливый уровень доходности нового выпуска в диапазоне 11,80-12,00% годовых и рекомендуем его к покупке после выхода на вторичный рынок с учетом потенциала снижения доходности к оферте на 70-90 б. п.
June 18, 2014
UFS IC

Gazprom, Credit Europe Bank, Russian Agricultural Bank. The debt market is in expectation of the comments on the Fed’s rate increase.

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Today the Fed meeting is the main event for the markets, it will be held at 22:00 GMT. ·         In the energy market the main driver consists in tensions in Iraq. Oil prices remain at extremely high levels since the beginning of the week. ·         Yesterday the Russian regulator has made changes to the settings of currency interventions as a part of the transition to the inflation targeting mode.   Debt Market ·         The Eurobond market is likely to show on Wednesday lateral dynamics in expectation of the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. ·         There is a possibility that the tone of the statements of Janet Yellen would imply the possibility of the rate increase in 1Q15. In this case, it is possible the growth of the yield of UST-10 to the peak since the end of April at the level of 2.70% per annum. ·         On Tuesday, the yield of issue RUSSIA-23 decreased by 7 b. p., and the yield of Eurobond RUSSIA-43 remained almost unchanged. ·         The yield of 10-year UST after the data on inflation grew by 6 b. p. to 2.65% per annum. ·         The local debt market is under pressure due to increased geopolitical risks. The secondary market indicates the dominance of sales, the primary market – increased activity of issuers.   Comments ·         Gazprom agreed with CNPC about the advance payment for gas deliveries to China in the amount of $25 billion. Previously it was reported about negotiations on this. The advance payment is a positive factor for the prospects of the credit profile of Gazprom, as in case of its receipt before or during the active phase of construction of the gas pipeline, the Russian company to a lesser extent will need to increase the leverage and to spend funds from the free cash flow on the project, the overall investments in which are estimated at $55 billion. In case of the growth of the probability of the resumption of gas supplies to Ukraine and reduction of risks to the transit to Europe, we recommend investors to pay attention to dollar issue GAZPRU-22 (YTM – 5.22%, Z-spread - 281 b. p.). ·         Credit Europe Bank on June 18-19 will hold the book building for 3-year bonds series BO-18 in the amount of 5 billion rubles. Participation is interesting; our fair range of return is 11.3-11.5% per annum. ·         Russian Agricultural Bank will hold today the premarketing of bonds series BO-07 in the amount of 10 billion rubles.
June 17, 2014
UFS IC

Promsvyazbank, Bank of Russia. The debt market is adjusting because of the "gas deadlock"

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    World markets significantly adjusted at the end of the past week, while in Russia it was a long holiday weekend. ·    Iran announced the lifting of sanctions by the West. ·    The external background for the Russian market before the start of trading is negative.   Debt Market ·    The Russian Eurobond market will be under pressure on Monday due to the news about the transfer of Ukraine to the system of advance payment for gas. ·    On Thursday-Friday, the yield of issues RUSSIA-23 and RUSSIA-43 grew by 10 b. p. to 4.47% and 5.44%, respectively. The yield of U.S. government bonds have decreased for this period by 4 b. p. to the level of 2.60% per annum. ·    The market of the Russian foreign currency debt will depend at the beginning of the week on the tone of statements by Western and Russian politicians about the situation on the gas issue in Ukraine. ·    In connection with the prospects of rising political tension, plans of Sberbank and Gazprombank on the placement of Eurobonds in the next two weeks can be adjusted. ·    On Wednesday, the indices of the ruble bond market demonstrated no expressed dynamics. Trades were held with low trading activity.   Comments ·    Evraz Plc. June 11 at investor day in London presented the development strategy for the next few years. Judging by the results achieved in the first quarter, we can say that the company seriously takes the achievement of announced goals to optimize costs and reduce the debt load. Presented plans and reports on the results achieved, in our opinion, will support the traded Eurobonds of the company. The potential decline in the yield of long Eurobond EVRAZ-20 (YTM – 8.04%, Z-spread - 613 b. p.) is 20-25 b. p. in the medium term. ·    Today Peresvet Bank starts the book building for the debut issue of 3-year bonds of series 03 in the amount of 2 billion rubles, According to our estimates, the fair rate of return is in the range of 11.8-12.0% per annum. We see the potential of the yield reduction of the issue and recommend you to participate in the issuance.
June 16, 2014
UFS IC

Evraz Plc., Peresvet Bank. On Monday Russian debt market will reflect the growth of geopolitical tension

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         World markets significantly adjusted at the end of the past week, while in Russia it was a long holiday weekend. ·         Iran announced the lifting of sanctions by the West. ·         The external background for the Russian market before the start of trading is negative.   Debt Market ·         The Russian Eurobond market will be under pressure on Monday due to the news about the transfer of Ukraine to the system of advance payment for gas. ·         On Thursday-Friday, the yield of issues RUSSIA-23 and RUSSIA-43 grew by 10 b. p. to 4.47% and 5.44%, respectively. The yield of U.S. government bonds have decreased for this period by 4 b. p. to the level of 2.60% per annum. ·         The market of the Russian foreign currency debt will depend at the beginning of the week on the tone of statements by Western and Russian politicians about the situation on the gas issue in Ukraine. ·         In connection with the prospects of rising political tension, plans of Sberbank and Gazprombank on the placement of Eurobonds in the next two weeks can be adjusted. ·         On Wednesday, the indices of the ruble bond market demonstrated no expressed dynamics. Trades were held with low trading activity.   Comments ·         Evraz Plc. June 11 at investor day in London presented the development strategy for the next few years. Judging by the results achieved in the first quarter, we can say that the company seriously takes the achievement of announced goals to optimize costs and reduce the debt load. Presented plans and reports on the results achieved, in our opinion, will support the traded Eurobonds of the company. The potential decline in the yield of long Eurobond EVRAZ-20 (YTM – 8.04%, Z-spread - 613 b. p.) is 20-25 b. p. in the medium term. ·         Today Peresvet Bank starts the book building for the debut issue of 3-year bonds of series 03 in the amount of 2 billion rubles, According to our estimates, the fair rate of return is in the range of 11.8-12.0% per annum. We see the potential of the yield reduction of the issue and recommend you to participate in the issuance.
ROSBANK

Eco Analysis - Russia: Inflation keeps the CBR on tenterhooks

June 11, 2014
UFS IC

Gazprombank, MegaFon. Russian Eurobonds adjusted on Tuesday, following US Treasuries

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Yesterday there were submitted the data from the U.S. on job openings for April. The value of 4.46 million was almost by half a million above the forecast of 4.04 million ·         The World Bank cut yesterday its forecast for the growth rate of the world economy in 2014 from 3.2% to 2.8%. ·         It took place the next postponement of the deadline on gas talks at 10:00 am to June 16.   Debt Market ·         The market of Russian Eurobonds adjusted downwards on Tuesday on the background of the cessation of the local overboughtness. ·         On Wednesday we expect the absence of the solution of the gas dispute with Ukraine and the growth of the yield in the market of US Treasuries. ·         On Wednesday we expect lateral dynamics in the Eurobond market on the background of another postponement of the transfer of Ukraine to the prepayment scheme. ·         However, the dynamics of the Russian foreign currency bonds again will largely depend on the movement of UST. ·         Indexes of ruble bonds closed without demonstrating single dynamics near previous levels. The benchmark government bonds have increased.   Comments ·         According to Interfax, Gazprombank is considering the Eurobond issuance in June. The issue may be denominated in euros. Dollar issue GPBRU-17 on Tuesday, June 10, was traded with the premium to swaps in the amount of 293 basis points, and issue GPBRU-19 – with the premium of 310 basis points. For comparison, Z-spread of issue of Gazprombank in Euro GPBRU-18 is 292 b.p. Thus, in case of the placement of a 3-year issue in euros, the fair premium to swap it can be about 290-295 b.p., which corresponds to the yield at 3.3-3.4% per annum, and for a 5-year issue the fair amount of the premium will be about 310 b.p., which corresponds to the yield of 3.8-3.9% per annum. ·         MegaFon has signed an additional agreement with Garsdale on the early payment of $1.06 billion for the transaction on purchase Skartel/Yota. We positively evaluate the determination of MegaFon to refinance its short-term foreign currency liabilities.
June 10, 2014
UFS IC

The local market debt keeps demonstrating positive dynamics. Comments: Synergy

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Today at 5:30 Moscow time there will be submitted the data from China. The consumer price index in annual terms was higher than the forecast and amounted to 2.5% against 2.4% and against the previous value of 1.8%. ·         Chinese producer price index in annual terms was also higher than the forecast and amounted to -1.4 percent against -1.5% and against the previous value of -2.0%. ·         At 18:00 GMT there will be submitted the data from the U.S. on job openings for April. ·         World markets are waiting for the news on the gas talks between Moscow and Kiev. ·         Significant strengthening of the ruble continues to take place in the currency market. The value of the bi-currency basket declined by 38 kopecks and is at 39.98 rubles   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds showed on Monday a moderate strengthening. ·         In the corporate sector issues of VimpelCom look above other issues. ·         In the course of trading on Tuesday we expect lateral dynamics in the market on the background of the news on the postponement of negotiations on gas. ·         Dynamics of the Russian securities will depend this week on the dynamics of the UST because spread RUSSIA-23-UST-10 decreased to the level of the beginning of the year in the range of 160-170 b.p. ·         The local debt market started the trading week without single dynamics at the medium turnover. The offered yield on ruble bonds of Alfa-Bank is interesting. Element Leasing redeems the recently placed issue.   Comments ·         The rate of the excise on alcoholic drinks for 2015 will be frozen. This solution is already included in the latest version of "the main directions of the tax policy of the Russian Federation".
June 09, 2014
UFS IC

ALROSA, NCSP. The Russian debt market showed steady growth on Friday

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         In France Vladimir Putin has a short meeting with new President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and leader of the USA Barack Obama. Investors hope for the long-awaited settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. ·         In the USA on Friday there were submitted important data on unemployment, the result remained at the level of previous values and is above expectations, the unemployment rate for May is 6.3% against the forecasted growth to 6.4%. ·         China's trade balance for May showed the record value. $35.9 billion against a forecast of $22.6 billion, and the previous value of $18.5 billion. ·         Today it will take place a trilateral the EU-Russia-Ukraine meeting on gas in Brussels.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds showed on Friday steady growth on the background of the decrease of geopolitical tensions after the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to France. ·         The yield of Russian issue RUSSIA-23 fell on Friday by 17 b.p. to 4.35%, and the yield of long Eurobond RUSSIA-43 decreased by 20 b.p. to 5.28% per annum. ·         Spread RUSSIA-23-UST-10 decreased on Friday by 18 b.p. to 178 b.p. At the beginning of the current year Spread RUSSIA-23-UST-10 was about 160 b.p. and at the end of April and beginning of May, its value was about 300 b.p. ·         At the beginning of the current week we expect moderately positive dynamics in the Russian Eurobond market. ·         The local debt market completed the trading week with a moderate increase at the maximum turnover since the beginning of June.   Comments ·         The S&P on Friday confirmed the rating of ALROSA at "BB-" with the "stable" outlook. Thus, the Agency decided not to lower the rating of the company, which since February of this year was under revision with the negative outlook. The S&P decision not to lower the rating of ALROSA on the background of the fact that the company managed to refinance the short-term debt, of course, is a positive factor for the quotations of traded Eurobonds of the company. However, given the fact that the company has agreed with banks to refinance the debt already a month and a half ago, the reaction in the Eurobonds of ALROSA on the S&P decision will be somewhat restrained. The potential for the yield reduction of Eurobond ALRSRU-20 (YTM - 5.68%, Z-spread - 366 b.p.) is about 20-30 b.p. in the medium term. ·         NCSP has published the statements under IFRS for 1Q14. We expect neutral reaction of the market.
UFS IC

АЛРОСА, НМТП. Российский долговой рынок показал уверенный рост в пятницу

Description
Мировые рынки и макроэкономика ·    Во Франции прошли короткие встречи Владимира Путина с новым президентом Украины Петром Порошенко и лидером США Бараком Обамой. Инвесторы надеются на долгожданное урегулирование украинского кризиса. ·    В Америке в пятницу вышли важные данные по безработице, результат остался на уровне предыдущего значения и лучше ожиданий, безработица в мае составила 6,3% против прогнозировавшегося увеличения этого показателя до 6,4%. ·    Торговый баланс Китая за май показал рекордное значение. $35,9 млрд., против прогноза в $22,6 млрд. и предыдущего значения в $18,5 млрд. ·    Сегодня пройдет трехсторонняя встреча в Брюсселе Россия-ЕС-Украина по газу.   Долговой рынок ·    Российские еврооблигации в пятницу показали уверенный рост на фоне снижения геополитической напряженности после визита президента России Владимира Путина во Францию. ·    Доходность российского выпуска RUSSIA-23 в пятницу снизилась на 17 б.п. до 4,35%, а доходность дальнего евробонда RUSSIA-43 сократилась на 20 б.п. до 5,28% годовых. ·    Спред RUSSIA-23-UST-10 сократился в пятницу на 18 б.п. до 178 б.п. В начале текущего года спред RUSSIA-23-UST-10 составлял порядка 160 б.п. а в конце апреля и начале мая его значение составляло порядка 300 б.п. ·    В начале текущей недели ожидаем сохранения умеренно-позитивной динамики на рынке российских еврооблигаций. ·    Торговую неделю локальный рынок долга завершил умеренным ростом на максимальных с начала июня оборотах.    Комментарии ·    Агентство S&P в пятницу подтвердило рейтинг компании АЛРОСА на уровне «BB-» со «стабильным» прогнозом. Таким образом, агентство не стало снижать рейтинг компании, который с февраля этого года находился на пересмотре с «негативным» прогнозом. Решение S&P не снижать рейтинг АЛРОСА на фоне того, что компании удалось рефинансировать краткосрочный долг, безусловно, является позитивным фактором для котировок обращающихся евробондов компании. Тем не менее, учитывая, что компания договорилась с банками о рефинансировании уже полтора месяца назад, реакция в еврооблигациях АЛРОСА на решение S&P будет до некоторой степени сдержанной. Потенциал снижения доходности евробонда  ALRSRU-20 (YTM – 5,68%, Z-спред – 366 б.п.) составляет порядка  20-30 б.п. в среднесрочном периоде. ·    НМТП опубликовал отчетность по МСФО за 1К14.  Ждем нейтральной реакции рынка.
June 06, 2014
UFS IC

VimpelCom, Alfa-Bank. Russian debt market rose on Thursday amid easing of the ECB monetary policy

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         The main event of this week took place yesterday – the ECB meeting. As expected, the key interest rate was reduced, but to 0.15%, not to 0.1% ·         There were submitted the data on jobless claims in the United States, they were worse than expected, 312 thousand against 309 thousand. ·         American markets keep growing rapidly, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 again reached new highs. ·         The data on inflation in Russia were published. In May this indicator demonstrated the value of April and amounted to 0.9%. ·         The currency market indicated the turn, which was forecast by us. ·          The cost of the bi-currency basket fell by 28 kopecks and made up 40.57 rubles     Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds appreciated on Thursday amid growing risk appetite in connection with the decision of the ECB to ease the monetary policy. ·         The yield of Russian issue RUSSIA-23 decreased on Thursday by 4 b.p. to 4.56%, and the yield of long Eurobond RUSSIA-43 decreased by 5 b.p. to 5.48% per annum. ·         In the course of trading on Friday we expect moderately positive dynamics in the market. The main event will consist in the publication of data on the US labor market. ·         Among the news of the primary market we note the reports that VEB is considering the possibility of placing Eurobonds in Euro after a successful transaction of Alfa-Bank. ·         The market of local bonds finished the day with growth. ·         The Lipetsk region conducted the placement with oversubscription by 4 times. TransFin-M prepares the placement of bonds series BO-24.   Comments ·         According to Reuters, Hong Kong Corporation Hutchison Whampoa has resumed negotiations with Vimpelcom Ltd. on the merger of the Italian assets. If the transaction takes place, the part or all of the debt of Wind can be deconsolidated from the debt of VimpelCom, and the debt load of the company may be reduced to 1.5-1.6x Net debt/EBITDA from the current level of 2.8-2.9x. We expect the news will support the Eurobonds of the Issuer, and find interesting issue VIP-22 (YTM – 6.54%, Z-spread 433 b. p.), traded with the highest premium to swaps in comparison with other securities of VimpelCom. The potential for the yield reduction of the issue is 30-40 b. p. in the medium term. ·         Alfa-Bank will conduct on June 9 the book building of 3-year bonds series BO-10 in the amount of 5 billion rubles. We recommend you to participate in the offering taking into the fair yield to put option at the level of 9.3 to 9.5% per annum.
June 05, 2014
UFS IC

Alfa-Bank, Peresvet Bank. The debt market is waiting for a decision of the ECB.

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         On Wednesday there were submitted the data on the trade balance of the USA – the value of -$47.2 billion was significantly lower than the forecast. ·         Crude oil stocks in the US fell by 3.4 million barrels, forecast reduction – just 0.2 million. ·         Change in employed in non-agricultural sector was worse than the forecast, 179 thousand against 217 thousand. ·         The main event of the day is the meeting of the European Central Bank at 15:45 Moscow time, at which it is expected the reduction of the key rate from 0.25% to 0.1%. ·         In regard to yesterday's news from the G7 summit we highlight that the countries of the G7 expect new sanctions against Russia, though put off this measure for the future.   Debt Market ·         Russian Eurobonds showed on Wednesday a decrease, continuing the correctional movement after the strong growth in May amid continuing uncertainty in the gas trade with Ukraine. ·         The yield of Russian issue RUSSIA-23 increased on Wednesday by 9 b. points to 4.56%, the yield of long Eurobond RUSSIA-43 increased by 7 b.p. to 5.52%. ·         On Thursday the main market event will be the results of the ECB meeting, from which the market is waiting the mitigation of the monetary policy. In addition, investors are waiting for Friday's data on the US labor market. ·         On Wednesday there took place the first in the second quarter placement in the primary Eurobond market – a 3 year issue in euros was placed by the parental structure of Alfa-Bank, ABH Financial Ltd. ·         The index of ruble bonds closed near on Thursday previous levels. ·         Peresvet Bank enters the public debt market; LOCKO-Bank holds a secondary placement.   Comments ·         The holding company of Alfa Bank, ABH Financial Ltd., placed on Wednesday a 3-year Eurobonds in the amount of 350 million euros at 5.5% per annum, which corresponds to the premium to swaps at the level of 505.2 b. p. Initial yield guidance was 5.75-6.00% per annum, but in the course of book building it was twice reduced, first – to 5.625%, and later – to 5.5% per annum. Considering the difference in the ratings of ABH Financial and Alfa-Bank, which partially offsets the conditions of cross-defaults, the premium to the fair yield makes up about 130 b. p. By results of the placement we maintain our expectations for the growth of the value of the Eurobond after the beginning of circulation in the secondary market. ·         Peresvet Bank enters the market of the public debt with the debut issue of bonds in the amount of 2 billion rubles. The first coupon rate is set at 12.25-12.50% per annum, which corresponds to the yield to the half-year offer of 12,63-12.90% per annum. According to our estimates, the fair rate of return is in the range of 11.0-11.2% per annum. We see the potential for its reduction and recommend you to participate in the offering.
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