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September 29, 2014
UFS IC Yield of government bonds climbs on increased uncertainty. Comments: Promsvyazbank, Evraz.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         According to the third assessment, US GDP grew 4.6% in 2Q14, as it was expected, on a quarterly basis. ·         Teheran and G6 may reach an agreement on Iranian nuclear program in the near future. ·         The trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union resulted in the deal on payment and gas deliveries to Ukraine. Debt Market ·         The ruble continued to weaken on Friday, which was negatively perceived by the market and led to the fall in the quotes of government bonds. ·         The investors will focus on the issue concerning the sanctions, which will be discussed tomorrow in Brussels. The negative dynamics weakly expressed is likely in the market, if the ruble continues weakening. Comments ·         Today and tomorrow Promsvyazbank will receive bids from investors for purchase of a5-year issue of bonds with series BO-06 valued at 5 billion rubles. We recommend investors to participate in the placement. We estimate the fair yield at 11.9-12.0%. The bank offers a premium in the amount of 80-145 b. p. on its own issue Promsvyazbank, BO-07 and approximately 60-90 b.p. on the issues of the peers. ·         Evraz plans to hold an IPO of its subsidiary. The news is positive for the company’s bonds. The funds to be obtained will be allocated for the repayment of the debt. The more liquid issue Evrazholding Finance,03 looks as the most interesting ruble issues of Evraz. We expect growth decline 100-120 b.p. Among the Eurobonds we recommend investors to look at Evraz-18.We expect the yield to decline to 7.1%, which implies the price increase up to 98.9% of par value.
September 26, 2014
UFS IC Aeroflot, Transaero, UTair. The weakened ruble has not broken the state bond market
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         As it was expected, US initial jobless claims grew 12 thousand to 293 thousand claims. ·         As it was expected, consumer price index in Japan reduced 0.1% p.p. in August to 3.3% at annual terms. ·         According to the information provided by an unidentified source from the diplomatic circles in the Eurozone, the EU sanctions against Russia may be cancelled not earlier than the beginning of October.   Debt Market ·         The positive dynamics is maintained in the state bonds, despite the weakening ruble. ·         Following the successful placement of the banks from the first tier, the smaller banks and corporate borrowers enter the market. ·         If the ruble is depreciating further, we expect a negative market reaction today.   Comments ·         Yesterday it was reported by the mass media that the largest airline carriers such as Aeroflot, Transaero, UTair, S7 Airlines and Ural Airlines, which have almost three-fourths of all aviation operations, requested the Presidential Administration of Russia to grant credit guarantees in early September.  
September 25, 2014
UFS IC Promsvyazbank. Investors’ interest is growing towards the debt market
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed would raise interest rates sooner than they projected. ·         US new home sales increased 18% in August to 504 thousand houses in the primary market. ·         Consumer price index in Russia gained 0.2% over the last week. ·         Yesterday Japan resolved to impose additional sanctions, targeting major Russian state banks. ·         According to the forecast of the World Bank, the Russian economy will climb 0.5% on the basis of the baseline scenario.   Debt Market ·         The positive dynamics was observed in the ruble bonds on Wednesday due to decreased geopolitical risks and the strengthened Ruble supported by the tax period. ·         During yesterday’s auction the Ministry of Finance placed OFZ valued at 10 billion rubles of par value, while the demand totaled 47.5 billion rubles, and obtained 8.76 billion rubles in favour of one investor.   Comments ·         Promsvyazbank will hold book building for bonds of series BO-06 in the amount of 5 billion rubles on September 29-30. The bank offers a premium in the amount of 75-140 b. p. on its own issue and high premium on the issues of its peers. We recommend investors to participate in the placement. In our opinion, the fair yield level is estimated at 11.9-12%. The new issue is interesting, starting from the middle of the proposed range.  
September 24, 2014
UFS IC Home Credit and Finance Bank. The market movement will be determined by the Ruble
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         US military activities in the Near East increased considerably geopolitical risks. ·         According to the preliminary data prepared by Markit, the Eurozone composite PMI in September dropped by 0.2 p. to 52.3 p. ·         According to the final assessment, the GDP France for 2Q 2014 showed a zero rise on a quarterly basis. ·         According to the preliminary data prepared by Markit, the US composite PMI in September underwent no changes and remained at 57.9 p.   Debt Market ·         On Tuesday the trades were held positively in the local debt market on the appreciated ruble, it should be underlined that the trades increased. ·         The Ministry of Finance decided to enter the primary market for the first time over three months. Today the Ministry will hold an auction of OFZ 26215 in the amount of 10 billion rubles. ·         The high activity is maintained in the primary debt market.   Comments ·         Yesterday Moody's downgraded the ratings of Home Credit and Finance Bank to B1 from Ba3, which reflects the concerns dealing with rapidly deteriorating asset quality of the bank and net losses. The outlook is negative. The downgraded of the rating is a negative aspect for the bonds. We expect some pressure on the quotes of HCFB.  
September 22, 2014
UFS IC The issuers continue to express their interest towards the primary market. Comments: Center-invest.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News• The fears that the China’s economy started to slow down made the Asian indices move down. • The prospects of the US monetary policy remain rather elusive in foreseeable future. Debt Market• The leading indices were traded showing a multidirectional dynamics on Friday.• The Moscow stock exchange RGBI government bond index experienced a downward correction following a two-day rise and fell by 0.2% by the end of the trading session.• The issuers continue to express their interest towards the primary market.Comments• On Friday Moody's affirmed the long-term debt and deposit ratings of Center-invest Bank at Ba3 with a stable outlook. The affirmation of the ratings reflects the Moody’s assessment for the stable main financial results of the banks, the established network of subsidiaries in Rostov region and a good level of the corporate management.
September 19, 2014
UFS IC Evraz, JSFC Sistema, Bashneft. Issuers enter the primary market
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    According to the preliminary results of yesterday’s voting Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom. ·    US initial jobless claims decreased 36 thousand to 280 thousand over the last week. ·    US home construction fell 14.4% following July’s 22.9% rise.   Debt Market ·    The positive dynamics prevailed on Thursday in the local debt market in light of the stabilized ruble. ·    The players’ activity was medium. ·    Yesterday several issuers announced about their intention to enter the primary market, following Alfa Bank and Raiffaisen Bank.   Comments ·    Evraz is going to launch IPO for its north American division. The news is positive for the bonds of the company. We welcome the Group’s constant intentions of reducing the debt burden and sticking to the policy aimed at cutting the Net debt/EBITDA ratio to 3x. Evraz Holding Finance, 03 is one of the most interesting bond issues of Evraz. We estimate the reduction potential of the yield at 40-50 b. p. ·    Moody's Investors Service placed the ratings of JSFC Sistema and its subsidiary Bashneft on review.  
September 18, 2014
UFS IC NCSP. The stabilized Ruble returned purchasers to government bonds
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    At the end of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee the Fed left the interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%. ·    According to the final assessment, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index in August grew 0.4% on an annual basis. ·    OPEC forecasts growth resumption of the oil prices by the end of 2014. ·    Commercial oil inventories increased 3.67 million barrels over the last week. ·    The EBRD downgraded the economic growth forecast to zero in Russia in 2014 and to -0.2% in 2015.   Debt Market ·    Yesterday the leading indices of the local debt market were traded without showing a single dynamics. ·    The stabilized ruble market supported the government bonds. ·    The players’ activity increased. ·    The stocks of JSFC Sistema slumped 4.5-5.0% by close on Wednesday. Bonds included into the group of MTS, Bashneft and Detsky Mir dropped less due to their low liquidity.   Comments ·    NCSP Group’s cargo turnover dropped 4.6% to 90.2 million tons. Grain transshipments showed the best dynamics, a 155% rise. The group’s container turnover climbed 10% to 455 thousand TEU. NCSP, 02 (looks less attractive as compared to the bonds of Transaero, BO-03.  
September 17, 2014
UFS IC Gazprom Neft, NOVATEK, AFK Sistema. S&P affirmed the ratings of some Russian companies
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The People’s Bank of China decided to provide the five largest banks with 500 billion yuan to support the demand in the economy. ·    OPEC forecasts a recovery in the rising prices for oil by the end of 2014. ·    The Bank of Russia took the step to alleviate tensions in foreign exchange market by foreign exchange swaps.   Debt Market ·    The leading indices of the bond market did not demonstrate a pronounced dynamics on Tuesday and closed near the Monday’s levels. ·    The low players’ activity is remained. ·    Today the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will not hold an auction on allocation of OFZ because of the unfavorable market circumstances. The agency has not hold any auctions since July 23.   Comments ·    Despite the sanctions against Russia imposed by the European Union and the USA on September 12, S&P leaved the ratings of the companies facing the sanctions unchanged. The fact that the leading world credit ratings agency did not change the ratings and high assessments of the financial soundness of the companies is positive for the bonds of the companies. We expect the bonds of Gazprom Neft, 11 and NOVATEK, BO-02 to outperform the market. ·    The majority shareholder and Chairman of the Board of Directors of AFK Sistema Vladimir Evtushenkov is charged with money laundering. We suppose that the first reaction of the market will be extremely negative, we expect a rapid fall in the quotes of AFK Sistema as well of its subsidiaries – MTS and Bashneft – in the coming days.  
September 16, 2014
Loans Cbonds Loan Syndications A market overview and EBRD update 2014
UFS IC

Raiffaisen Bank. The Central Bank of Russia shook up the primary debt market

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The OECD downgraded the outlook for the leading world economies. ·    According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Russian industrial production in August slowed down to 0% at annual terms against a 1.5% rise in July.   Debt Market ·    The main indices of the bond market were traded within the red zone yesterday. ·    The players’ activity waned. ·    Raiffeisen Bank and TransFin-M announced to enter the primary markets. ·    It was the second time, when KIT Finance Capital postponed the start of placing the exchange bonds with series of BO-05 in the amount of 2.1 billion rubles from September 17 to September 25.   Comments ·    Raiffaisen Bank places bonds with series BO-04 in the amount of 10 billion rubles. We consider the participation in the issue as an interesting one. At our estimates, the fair yield of the new issue amounts to 10.5-10.6%.  
September 15, 2014
UFS IC

FESCOThe interest rate is maintained, the inflation outlook is increased

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The industrial production in the Eurozone in August improved 0.1% on a monthly basis against a 0.3% fall in July. ·    On Friday, September 12 the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia took the decision on maintaining the interest rate (week repo rate) at 8.00%.   Debt Market ·    Pending the decisions on another set of sanctions and the results of the meeting of Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia the trades waned in the local debt market on Friday and the key indices closed the trading session near the Thursday’s levels. ·    The CB RF took the decision on maintaining the interest rate at 8.00% p.a.   Comments ·    On Friday Standard & Poor's decreased the long-term issuer default rating of the FESCO transportation group from «B» to «B+». The outlook is negative. The Group fails to recover financial results and reduce its debt burden. We expect a negative market reaction in the company’s bonds. Among the issuers of the transport sector we prefer bonds of Transaero.  
ROSBANK

Eco Analysis - Russia: Central Bank left key rate unchanged

September 12, 2014
UFS IC

ALROSA. The local market awaits the decisions of the CBRF, the European Commission and the USA on Friday. 

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News• Today the European Union gives effect to the new set of sanctions against Russia.• US initial jobless claims increased by 11 thousand to 315 thousand.• The meeting of the Bank of Russia will be held today, where the decision on the change in the interest rate may be taken.Debt Market• The news regarding the sanctions on Russia by the EU and USA resulted in the sale of local bonds in the afternoon.• The yield of OFZ 26206 and 26207 dropped slightly within 4-7 b. p. We think that the negative dynamics will be maintained in the market. The news background will be eventful, the factor of profit taking before the weekend will not favor purchases.Comments• ALROSA is going to sell Insurance Company ‘IC ALROSA’ within the framework of the program on withdrawal of non-core assets. We welcome the company’s commitment to the adopted Program, but we think the news will be neutral for the quotes of ALROSA. Currently, the news items about the company are rather negative.
ROSBANK

Eco Analysis - Russia: CBR to keep rate unchanged regardless of inflation headwinds

September 11, 2014
UFS IC

KAMAZAccelerating inflation may push the CB RF to increase interest rates

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    US President Barack Obama stated he has the authorities to launch air strikes targeting militants IN Iraq and Syria. ·    According to the Chinese Central Bureau of Statistics the consumer price index reduced 0.3 percentage points to 2.0%. ·    The Fed may increase the interest rates earlier than expected. ·    Despite decreased oil stocks the oil price continues decreasing. ·    According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the consumer price index edged up 0.2%.   Debt Market ·    On Wednesday the trades did not demonstrate a single dynamics, the players’ activity was low. ·    Investors focused on the EU final decision on sanctions and the data on weekly inflation in Russia. ·    KIT Finance Capital closed book building on Wednesday and set a coupon yield at 8% p.a. in the amount of 2.1 billion rubles for the issue BO-04.   Comments ·    KAMAZ announced that it would participate in the auto utilization program, which was launched on September 1. No doubt the utilization program will provide support to auto producers in the conditions of the falling demand for cars. Kamaz, BO-03 is low liquid and does not offer any speculative ideas. Soon the company will enter the primary market with issues of state guarantees.  
September 10, 2014
UFS IC

X5 Retail Group, Credit Bank of Moscow, Detsky MirWeekly

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Industrial Production in the United Kingdom increased 0.5% in July on a monthly basis. ·    The US Federal Reserve System may start increasing interest rates earlier than expected.   Debt Market ·    The calm news background returned purchasers to government bonds on Tuesday. ·    The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation cancelled again the auction on allocation of OFZ scheduled for September 10. ·    Today investors will focus on the EU final decision on sanctions against Russia, data on weekly inflation presented by Federal State Statistics Service and the situation in Ukraine. Before the announcement of the decision by the European Commission the most likely scenario is a lateral dynamics of the indices in the local debt market.   Comments ·    Yesterday Moody’s changed the outlook on X5 Retail Group, namely on corporate rating «B2» and default probability rating «B2-PD» from «stable» to «positive». The news is positive for the company’s bonds. Besides, we draw the attention to strong recently published financial results, indicating the strengthened issuer’s profile. As a trade idea a more liquid issue can be considered: X5 Finance, BO-01. ·    Credit Bank of Moscow presented financial results for 1H 2014 in compliance with IFRS. The reports are strong and we expect they back the bank’s quotes. We highlight high values of standard indicators and business efficiency. Credit Bank of Moscow, BO-10 is the most interesting issue among the issues with duration of one year. The issue looks undervalued in comparison with similar issues of Zenit and Otkritie, having similar duration and ratings and offering a yield of 10.5-10.8%. ·    The Russian Chinese Investment Fund intends to invest into Detsky Mir. In this case it may deal with a 10% stake, for which Sistema looked for purchases in summer 2014. The news is positive for the company’s profile, as Detsky Mir will not have to increase the debt burden.    
September 09, 2014
UFS IC

We await the purchasers to return to the local debt market. Comments: Novatek, Zapsibcombank.

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News• The European Union approved a new set of sanctions against Russia.• According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, the GDP in Russia grew 0.8% for 2Q 2014 at annual terms.Debt Market• The European Union approved the new sanction package against Russia, but deferred its introduction for the coming days.• We expect purchasers to return to the local debt market on the improved news background.Comments• Fitch Ratings affirmed the Novatek’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating at ‘BBB-‘. The outlook on the ratings is stable. The news will be neutrally perceived by the market. Currently the markets are focusing on the news in connection with the developments of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the likelihood of expansion of the EU and US sanctions against Russia.• Yesterday Zapsibcombank completed placement of three-year exchange bonds, series BO-04 in the amount of 2 billion rubles. We recommend purchasing a new issue in the secondary market, as we estimate the potential of the yield downgrade at 40-50 b.p. Besides, the issue is interesting by its short duration and suits as an asset under a ‘buy it, keep it’ strategy.
September 08, 2014
UFS IC

TransContainer. Refusal from introducing sanctions will be a driver for growth in the debt markets

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News   ·    On Friday, as it was expected, the peace deal over Ukraine was reached in Minsk. ·    China’s import declined 2.4%. ·    The Eurozone’s GDP for 2Q 2014 remained unchanged on a quarterly basis.     Debt Market   ·    Today we anticipate the lateral dynamics to be maintained. It will be the most likely scenario till the ECB’s announcement of recurrent set of sanctions. New EU sanctions may be imposed on Russia on September 9, though the President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy said earlier that he did not rule out a refusal from introduction of new sanctions by the EU. ·    The meeting of the Central Bank of Russia to be held on September 12 will be the most significant event of this week.   Comments ·    The government approved the transfer of stocks of TransContainer and Russian Railways. During the first stage Russian Railways will contribute to the authorized capital of UTLC 50% plus 2 shares of OAO TransContainer and 100% minus 1 share of OAO Russian Railways Logistics, which will amount to 99.8% of the authorized capital of OAO UTLC. We do not anticipate a vivid reaction to the news, as it was quite expected.  
September 05, 2014
UFS IC

LentaThe meeting in Minsk will determine the market movement

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Yesterday the European Central Bank decided to reduce the interest rate from 0.15% to 0.05%. The regulator intends… ·    According to the final Markit assessment, the US composite PMI in August slid 0.9 points to 59.7 points. ·    US jobless claims grew 4,000 claims to 302,000 claims over the last week. ·    German industrial orders surged 4.6% on a monthly basis against a 2.7% fall in June. ·    According to the US department of Energy, commercial oil stocks dropped by 0.91 million barrels over the last week. ·    As it was expected, Russian consumer price index in August rose 0.2% on a monthly basis against a 0.5% increase in July.   Debt Market ·    Due to calm news background the local debt market closed Thursday’s trading with moderate growth. ·    The players’ activity is mean. ·    Today the correction is likely to be observed in the market. The results of the meeting in Minsk and the decisions on sanctions to be announced today will determine further dynamics of the market.   Comments ·    Yesterday Lenta released financial results for 2H2014 in compliance with IFRS. In the context of the credit portfolio indicators the indicators are weak. Among the retailer issuers issues of O’KEY look more interesting.  
September 04, 2014
UFS IC

EuroChem, Norilsk Nickel. Weakening geopolitical intensity has affected positively the debt markets

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukranian President Petr Poroshenko agreed on cease-fire in Donbass in a phone conversation. ·    Today investors are awaiting a ECB’s resolution on further monetary policy. ·    The Markit Eurozone composite PMI in August reduced by 0.3 points to 52.5 points. ·    A set of the US macro-statistical data was published, the market showed no reaction to it. ·    The HSBC Russia composite PMI in August dropped by 0.2% to 51.1 points.   Debt Market ·    On Wednesday amid weakening geopolitical intensity purchasers resumed to government bonds. ·    The players’ activity compared to the previous days rose. ·    The first market has been fostering.   Comments ·    EuroChem attracted a syndicated loan in the amount of 750 million dollars for eight years. The news is neutral for the bonds. We think that a more liquid issue and short duration issue EuroСhem, 02 looks more interesting among the stocks of the issuers in the chemical industry. Now the stocks of Acron are valued fairly by the market. ·    MMC Norilsk Nickel continues selling Australian assets. The news is positive for the credit portfolio of Norilsk Nickel, however, we do not expect a strong reaction to it. Local issues are valued fairly by the market. In our opinion, the issues Metalloinvest, 01 and RUSAL Bratsk, 08 look more interesting.  
September 03, 2014
UFS IC

Zapsibcombank. The factor of sanctions is regained

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The producer price index in the Eurozone in July decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis against a 0.2% rise in June. ·    The ISM manufacturing PMI in the USA in August rose by 1.9 points to 59.0 points. ·    The HSBC China composite business activity index in August increased by 1.2 points to 52.8 points. ·    According to the data provided by Markit/JMMA the Japan composite business activity index in August improved by 0.6 points to 50.8 points. ·    The European Commission does not consider the option of blocking Russia from using SWIFT.   Debt Market ·    Market players are undecided, pending another set of sanctions against Russia, which deprive them of active actions. ·    Yesterday government bonds looked stronger after dramatic fall of the trading sessions. ·    Today the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation will not hold an auction on allocation of OFZ because of the unfavorable market circumstances. The agency does not enter the primary market for the seventh week in a row amid rapid rise in the yield of government bonds. ·    S&P said yesterday that Russian companies would cope with direct influence of sanctions on creditworthiness indicators, as the experts of the agency stick to the view that the profitability of the Russian companies is adequate.   Comments ·    Zapsibcombank is collecting applications from September 2 to September 4 on acquiring bonds with series BO-04 in the amount of 2 billion rubles. We consider the participation in the primary placement as interesting. The bank offers a premium on its own issue and on issues of other peer- banks. We estimate the fair level of the yield in the range of 13.0-13.1%. Taking into account the duration of 0.5 years the issue is interesting in the contest of the strategy till put option.
September 02, 2014
UFS IC

Transaero. Absence of news on new set of sanctions will calm the local debt market

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    According to the European Central Bank head Mario Draghi, there are two vital issues on the agenda: a weak growth rates in the EU zone and a threat of deflation. ·    According to Markit, the business activity index in the Eurozone fell from 51.8 points in July to 50.7 points. ·    According to HSBS, the business activity index in the manufacturing sector in Russia remained at 51.0 in August.   Debt Market ·    On Monday a negative dynamics prevailed in all segments of the local debt market. ·    Weakening ruble also adds negative points. ·    The volume of investments by non-residents by July 1 exceeded the maximum value (933 billion rubles), recorded on November 1, 2013. ·    Municipal and corporate bond indices showed a decline. ·    Today we expect the negative dynamics to be continued in ruble bonds, but in case of calm news background growth rates look likely to be slowed down.   Comments ·    Transaero released financial results in 1H2014 under IFRS. The results are strong: revenues increased by 7%, operating profit increased by 58.6%, net income improved by 61%. EBITDA rose 17%. The company manages to reduce gradually its debt burden, which still exceeds in these terms a comfortable level. Transaero, BO-03 may be interesting with yield at 13.4-13.5% and the spread towards OFZ amounts to 440 b. p.  
September 01, 2014
Eurasian Development Bank Activities of development banks in Eurasian countries.
Information digest (september 2014)
Nordea Bank

Ежедневный обзор рынков

August 15, 2014
UFS IC

X5, PIK. Posiitve moods prevail in the local debt market

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The speech of Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing the lawmakers in Crimea, decreased slightly the degree of the escalated situation. ·    GDP in the EZ in 2Q14 on a quartet basis demonstrated zero growth. ·    The number of US initial jobless claims over the last week increased by 21 thousand to 311 thousand claims.   Debt Market ·    During the Thursday’s lull in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict positive moods prevailed in all segments of the local debt market. ·    The demand for longer issues remains in the government bond market. ·    No activity is observed in the primary market.   Comments ·    X5 Retail Group released financial results in 1H14 in compliance with IFRS. As to the credit profile of the issuer the results are strong, in our opinion. Among local stocks of X5 Retail Group we underline a more liquid issue X5 Finance, BO-01 (duration 1.1 years, YTM 10.20%, G-spread 153 b. p.), the premium payable at its maturity to the issue Magnit, BO-07 (duration 1.0 years, YTM 9.60%, G-spread 98 b. p.) looks overestimated. ·    PIK is planning to enter the public debt market. S&P assigned ratings ‘B’ with a ‘positive’ outlook to PIK Group.  
August 13, 2014
UFS IC

GazpromNeft. Federal loan bonds made up for the last week’s fall over the last two days

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Players turn attention to the development of the situation around Ukraine again. ·    According to the Statistic Bureau of the USA, the number of vacant posts open in June increased by 94 posts or 2.05% as compared to the number in May and amounted to 4671 vacant posts. ·    On a quarterly basis, Japan’s GDP in 2Q14 dropped by 1.7%. Experts expected a 1.8% fall of the figure.   Debt Market ·    Purchasers prevail in the local debt market. ·    In light of reduced geopolitical tension the demand for government bonds is maintained. The yield of ·    For the fourth time in a row despite the considerable yield decline of the government bonds, the Russian Finance Ministry cancelled an auction of placement of the federal loan bonds.   Comments ·    Gazprom Neft published consolidated financial results for 1H14. In terms of the credit quality of the issuer the results are neutral. We do not expect a dramatic reaction to them.
August 12, 2014
UFS IC

Gazprombank. Decreased geopolitical risks returned consumers to state securities

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News   ·    Slightly reduced tension and decreased risk assessment by investors let markets grow. ·    According to the final assessment, industrial production in Japan in June increased by 3.1%, the former assessment of the indicator stood at +3.2%. ·    According to the Federal State Statistics Service, GDP of Russia in 2Q14 y-o-y grew by 0.8% against a 0.9% rise in the previous quarter.   Debt Market ·    Decreased geopolitical risks returned consumers to state bonds. The yesterday’s strengthening of the ruble also favored the purchase. ·    The benchmark issues’ yield considerably dropped by 20-30 b. p. ·    In the segment of the municipal debt purchases also prevailed; a negative dynamics was observed in the corporate bonds.   Comments ·    S&P affirmed the ratings for Gazprombank at «BBB-» with a “negative” outlook. The confirmation of the ratings by the leading agency is positive for the credit institution, and we note that the positive news background prevails around Gazprombank. The positive news background will back up the most liquid bonds of Gazprombank, 07 (duration 1.1 years, YTP 11.56%, G-spread 279 b. p.), Gazprombank, BO-05 (duration 0.96 years, YTP 9.55%, G-spread 93 b. p.), and Gazprombank, BO-07 (duration 0.69 years, YTP 9.49%, G-spread 115 b. p.), which may outperform the market in the short-term.
August 11, 2014
Baker McKenzie Companies Are Required to Store and Process Personal Data of Russian Citizens on Russian Territory
Description
On 21 July 2014 Russia adopted a law that, subject to certain limited exceptions, requires all companies that collect and process personal data of Russian citizens to use databases located in Russia. Non-compliance with these rules may result in a company’s website being blocked for Russian users. The new rules will become effective 1 September 2016.
UFS IC

VTB, Vimpelcom. As a most likely scenario we predict a lateral movement in the local debt market

 

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Moscow and Kiev agreed, in principle, on humanitarian aid for the South-East of Ukraine, investors reduce their risk assessment. ·    Another positive factor for the West, reducing the risk assessment, has become cessation of military exercises conducted by the Russian armed forces in the Astrakhan region. ·    The German trade balance in June increased from €12.2 billion to €15.0 billion on a monthly basis. ·    Industrial production in France in June rose 1.3% on a monthly basis, the indicator decreased by 1.6% in May. ·    A big set of statistics for the USA was published on Friday, the data are moderately negative.   Debt Market ·    On Friday the local debt market closed the trading without showing pronounced dynamics. ·    Main indices closed with slight changes close to the previous levels. ·    As a most likely scenario we predict a lateral movement in the local debt market.   Comments ·    Despite the sanctions S&P affirmed the rating of VTB and its subsidiaries. The news is positive for the company, taking in to account that lately a negative background was mainly formed around the company. ·    Vimpelcom attracted two loans of Sberbank for the total amount of 40 billion rubles. Attraction of long-term credit line we regard as a positive aspect. Though, the high debt burden remains as a main risk in the company’s securities. The news will not exert considerable pressure on the company’s bonds, which are fairly assessed by the market now.
August 08, 2014
UFS IC

NLMK. Investors still focus on the confrontation between Russia and the West

Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The ECB keeps monetary policy unchanged. ·    The Bank of England kept the interest rate at the same level of 0.5%. ·    Market players draw their attention to the confrontation between Russia and the West. ·    The trade balance of China in July increased from 31.56 billion dollars to 47.30 billion dollars versus the expected decline of 27.40 billion dollars. ·    Industrial production in Germany in June rose 0.3% against expected increase level of 1.2%, the figure in May decreased by 1.7%. ·    The number of first-time jobless claims in the USA decreased by 14 thousand to 289 thousand during last week.   Debt Market ·    The confrontation between Russia and states imposed sanctions continues. ·    The yield of OFZ 26206 grew by 12 b. p. to 9.81% per annum; the yield of OFZ 26207 grew by 4 b. p. to 9.8% per annum. ·    The demand for exchange bonds of UniCredit Bank with series BO-22 in the amount of 10 billion rubles exceeded the offer by 1.2 times.   Comments ·    NLMK presented financial results for 1H14 according to US GAAP. We highlight the improved loan portfolio of NLMK and maintain our positive outlook for the company’s loan risk. The statements will also provide certain support to Eurobonds of NLMKRU-18 (YTM 6.04%, Z- spread – 435 b. p.) and NLMKRU-19 (YTM 5.77%, Z-spread – 454 b. p.), but because of low liquidity of ruble bonds the reaction is likely to be neutral.
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