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  • Alfa Bank
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March 04, 2015
Cbonds Group Cbonds Global Monthly Newsletter, February 2015
March 02, 2015
Eurasian Development Bank Activities of multilateral development banks. Information digest.
February 16, 2015
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Scrutinising Russia’s external balances
February 02, 2015
Alfa Bank ALFA Report: Macro Insights-2014 Macro Statistics-Expecting Consumption To Recede This Year
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: To cut, or not to cut… to cut
January 28, 2015
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Time to cut the key rate has not come yet
January 27, 2015
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: No longer an investment grade story (S&P)
January 22, 2015
Alfa Bank Macro Insights: Capital Outflow Is The Key Risk In 2015
January 14, 2015
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Recession is inevitable
December 12, 2014
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Central Bank of Russia continues the tightening cycle
December 10, 2014
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: CBR preview - More attention should be paid to non-conventional measures
November 28, 2014
UFS IC OPEC made its decision, we wait for the marker reaction. Comments: Raiffeisen Bank, LUKOIL, NLMK, Metalloinvest, Nordgold.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The 166th OPEC meeting held in Vienna resulted in keeping the quotas for oil production at the same level. ·    Japan’s manufacturing output advanced 0.2% in October.   Debt Market ·    UST-10 was not traded yesterday, but the March 2015 Futures was traded. Its target range of volatility was in line with our forecast. During today’s trading session it will range from 129.29 (max) to 127.06 (min). We assume that the derivative security will be purchased.  ·    Yesterday the trades showed no pronounced dynamics in the local debt market and the leading indices underwent marginal changes. Generally the government bonds lowered by 0.05%. The activity rose also in the primary market mainly due to the issuers of the banking sector.   Comments ·    Yesterday LUKOIL posted its financial results prepsred in compliance with US GAAP. Net profit referred to OAO LUKOIL for 9M 2014 declined by 26% from earlier $7.77 to $5.74 billion. The ground is the declined prices for hydrocarbon, the losses incurred from the difference of the exchange rates. In the light of the OPEC meeting held yesterday, which led to no changes in oil production, we prefer the securities of the metallurgists. ·    Yesterday Raiffeisen Bank posted its financial results prepared in compliance with IFRS for 9M 2014. In 9M 2014, Raiffeisen Bank generated 14 billion rubles, down 13% y-o-y. The reduced profit resulted from the expenditures for reserves increased almost fourfold in the retails segment amid the pat due debt and the increased credit portfolio for natural persons and due to the high comparative base. We suppose that Raiffeisen Bank, BO-04 looks oversold and offers an interesting premium to OFZ.  
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Sovereign ratings in 2015 – pressure from the OPEC
November 27, 2014
UFS IC We expect the pressure on the Eurobonds to be put ahead of the OPEC meeting. Comments: ALROSA, Russian Standard Bank, TCS.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         The results of the OPEC meeting to be held today will set the dynamics of oil prices for the near future. ·         Russia’s consumer price index firmed 0.3% during the last week.   Debt Market ·         The US stock market will be closed for Thanksgiving Day holiday. The market liquidity loses steam. ·         The end of the tax payment period and the cheapening oil put pressure on the Russian currency, which led to sales of government bonds. Yesterday yield of benchmark OFZ surged. The corporate and municipal bond indices closed the trading with a marginal rise.   Comments ·         Yesterday ALROSA reported the 9M 2014 results prepared in compliance with IFRS, reflecting a 44% decrease y-o-y in net profit. The y-o-y operating results look good. The credit portfolio remained strong. Currently we prefer NORDLI-18 and NLMKRU-18 among the issues of the metallurgists. ·         Standard & Poor's affirmed the long-term ratings of the contractor Russian Standard Bank at «B+/B». The outlook is negative. Among the retails banks, having the similar ratings, we suppose that the bonds of Tinkoff Credit Systems look more interesting. We suggest buying the issue TCS, BO-06 as a trading idea.
November 26, 2014
UFS IC Waiting for OPEC Decision. Comments: Gazprombank, Metalloinvest.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The oil prices decline on the statistics and the expectations of the OPEC meeting. ·    OECD cut the forecast for the economic growth of the Russian Federation. ·    Merkel persists in maintaining the sanctions regime against Russia.   Debt Market ·    Today the trading session will be volatile. In the afternoon, we wait for the publication of some macrostatistical indices from the USA, besides the OPEC meeting adds some uncertainty. It will put pressure on the Russian Eurobonds. ·    Amid the weakened ruble and as a result of the pending correction the negative dynamics prevailed in the local debt market. Yesterday yield of benchmark OFZ rose, the longer issues looked weaker.   Comments ·    Gazprombank may obtain a subordinated loan worth 100 billion rubles from the National Wealth Fund. The funds will be earmarked for the replenishment of the state bank’s capital. ·    Yesterday Metalloinvest Group posted the 3Q 2014 results prepared in compliance with IFRS.The quarterly results of Metalloinvest look weak. However, the credit metrics improved. Metalloinvest, 05 isinteresting among three shorter issues.
November 24, 2014
UFS IC Strong ruble and expensive oil make the market climb. Comments: Uralsib, MMK, Nordgold.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         China’s Central Bank cut benchmark interest rates. ·         The negotiations on Iranian nuclear program are under way in Vienna, its results will impact the Brent oil prices.   Debt Market ·    Uralsib Bank (B2/B+/B+) is going to issue subordinated Eurobonds nominated in USD with yield of 12%, maturing in 5.5 years. The amount of the issue is $150 million. Perhaps the book-building will start already in November. ·    On Friday the market looked strong for a long time amid the strengthening ruble. The market of the primary debt is activated. Sub-federal borrowers and corporate issuers return to this market. We expect a positive dynamics in the market today.   Comments ·    Nordgold, the international gold mining company reports that its EBITDA increased by 33% to $391.5 million for 9M 2014. NORDLI-18, the only issue of Eurobonds is traded with premium to Z-spread of 304 b. p. against CHMFRU-18, the issue of Severstal. We suppose that the difference in Z-spread between the issues will narrow from 304 to 250 b. p. The fair yield may make up 8.8%. We recommend buying NORDLI-18. ·    MMK posted its results for 3Q and 9M 2014 on Friday. The company’s net profit amounted to $106 million against the losses of $274 million incurred last year. We also stress positive shifts in the credit metrics of the company. However, we do not expect considerable market reaction to the released results, as the issues are low liquid and are fairly valued, in our view. Among the metallurgical issuers, Metalloinvest, 06 looks more interesting.
November 20, 2014
UFS IC The stabilization of the ruble is to investors’ advantage. Comments: Uralkali, X5 Retail Group.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Recently the FOMC meeting minutes has been published. ·         The oil quotes may suffer from pressure today due to a range of factors. ·         The Russian industrial output modestly improved its growth rates in October.   Debt Market ·         We expect the increased volatility in the American treasuries at 4 p. m. (Moscow time).   ·         FOMC member Daniel Tarullo will speak in the afternoon. Core CPI index for October will be published at 4:30 p.m. (Moscow time). ·         The trades closed with a slight decline on Wednesday against the further consolidation of the ruble. The high players’ activity remained. The Ministry hold an action on placement of OFZ for the first time since October, the placement did not arise any interest from investors. Rosstat announced the accelerated weekly inflation of 0.3%. This value equaled 0.2$ last week. Prices for fruits and vegetables contributed mainly to the inflation for a seventh week in a row.   Comments ·         The outlook of X5 Retail Group was upgraded by Standard & Poor's from “stable” to “positive”. The rating actions reflect the group's improved operating performance and credit metrics over the past few quarters. The bonds of X5 Finance look overbought. The Magnit’s issues look more interesting. ·         Z-spread between PHORRU-18 and URKARM-18 (YTM 7.72%, Z-spead of 642 b. p.) may decrease from 108 b. p. to 0 b. p. The fair yield will amount to 5.47%. Besides. The consensus-forecast indicates that PhosAgro has demonstrated good results for 3Q 2014. We recommend buying PHORRU-18.
November 17, 2014
UFS IC The market will win back some losses. Comment: EuroChem.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    GDP in the euro area increased 0.2% q-o-q in the third quarter versus the expected 0.1% increase. ·    The G20 summit taken place in Australia is over. ·    The EU considers an option of imposing a new set of economic sanctions against Russia.   Debt Market ·    Nevertheless we do not rule out that the market may win back the summit results. We do not predict strong pressure will be put on the Russian Eurobonds and expect partial purchases of Eurobonds, as the latter declined on Friday.   Comments ·    The EuroChem Group posted its financial results under IFRS for 9M 2014 last week. The sales decreased 6% $3.94 billion for 9M 2014 versus $4.20 billion for 9M 2013. EBITDA y-o-y improved 2% to $1.09 billion from $1.06 billion. EBITDA margin rose by 2.4. p. p. from 25.3% for 9M 2013 to 27.7% 9M 2014. Besides, Fitch also affirmed the long-term default issuer rating of MCC EuroChem at ‘BB’ with a stable outlook.
November 14, 2014
UFS IC Today we do not expect strong pressure on the Eurobonds. Comments: Otkritie.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·      As it was expected, German CPI in October remained at 0.8% y-o-y. ·      According to the US Department of Energy, oil commercial inventories dropped 1.74 million barrels during the last week.   Debt Market ·      We think the situation on the market unfolds according to the information field, which many have already accustomed to. We expect flat dynamics on the market.   Comments ·      The Otkritie Group completed reorganisation of its retail banking business – Otkritie Bank and Novosibirsk Municipal Bank have merged into the Bank of Khanty-Mansiysk. Standard&Poor’s affirmed the long-term credit rating of Khanty-Mansiysk Otkritie Bank at ‘ВВ-’ with a stable outlook.  Concurrently the agency upgraded the long-term credit rating of Otkritie Bank at ‘ВВ-’ from ‘В+’ and withdrew it.
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: CBR 12-month FX repo auction – not such a big thing, after all
November 13, 2014
UFS IC The market consolidated on Wednesday, we expect the flat dynamics to continue. Comment: Gazprom Neft.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    Mario Draghi reiterated that the ECB was ready to undertake new steps to boost the Eurozone economy. ·    Brent is falling amid the negotiations between the USA and Iran and due to the improved dollar. ·    The US Energy Department cut 2015 BRENT forecast. ·    Last week the weekly inflation in Russia slowed to 0.2% from 0.3% the previous week.   Debt Market ·    Yesterday Charles Plosser FOMC said that rates increases were to occur earlier than anticipated otherwise, there were risks of inflation.   Comments ·    Yesterday Gazprom Neft published its unaudited consolidated financial results, in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards for 9M 2014. We consider that the company demonstrated good results y-o-y. We recommend buying SIBNEF-23, but at the same time we direct the investors’ attention to the intense news around the company.
November 12, 2014
UFS IC No new sanctions alleged to be imposed, we expect the market to keep growing. Comment: NLMK.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         Brent’s value is losing amid the negotiations between the USA and Iran. ·         The EU wants to increase the banned list of Russians.   Debt Market ·         German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that no sectoral sanctions were to be introduced against the Russian Federation. The news is positive for the Russian sovereign and corporate Eurobonds.   Comments ·         NLMK Group posted its consolidated financial results for 3Q and 9M 2014. Its US GAAP net income is increased almost threefold. The credit portfolio remains strong. We recommend buying NLMKRU-18.  
November 11, 2014
UFS IC APEC positively affects yield of bonds. CBM’s Eurobonds have an idea. Comment: CBM.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The APEC summit is in session in Beijing. ·    The bank of Russia decided to allow the ruble to float freely, having abolished the currency corridor. ·    The Central Bank of Russia restricts the provision of ruble liquidity for purchase of the foreign currency.   Debt Market ·    Today the stock exchanges are closed due to Veterans Day in the USA, as well as in France. We expect the yield of the sovereign and corporate Russian Eurobonds to decline. We suppose that NLMKRU-18 is oversold amid the news on good financial results, we recommend investors to buy this issue.   Comments ·    Fitch affirmed the rating of Credit Bank of Moscow at 'BB' with a stable outlook last Friday. The rating of the subordinated debt is set at 'BB-'. Owing to the strong financial results for 1H 2014 we note that currently Z-spread between CRBKMO-18sub and CRBKMO-18 widened to a historic high of 407 b. p. We expect the spread to narrow from 407 to 355 b. p. We recommend investors to buy CRBKMO-18sub.
November 10, 2014
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: CBR abandons operative currency band
UFS IC Gazprom has agreed the final price for gas supply to China. The prepayment for the Power of Siberia pipeline is not considered. The market will rise slightly in the morning. Comment: Gazprom.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         The US unemployment rate reduced to 5.8% due to the decreased number of vacancies. ·         The euro is strengthening owing to the strong statistical data from Europe. ·         During the visit to Beijing Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as a follow-up to that meeting, it is planned to sign a big package of documents.   Debt Market ·         Today the APEC summit will continue to take place, where the leaders of the states and government of different regions will gather. Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will address the APEC summit. The market will follow his statements, and we expect a slight rise in the morning.   Comments ·         Gazprom and China have signed a framework agreement for gas supply of 30 billion cubic meters to China annually from the deposits of Western Siberia. Along with the construction of the Power of Siberia and the Altai gas pipeline, Gazprom will have to enhance the deliveries, and Alexey Miller noted that the gas was planned to deliver from the Far East.
November 07, 2014
UFS IC ECB will purchase ABS within 2 years. OPEC will curtail the quota for oil production, if the price plunges below $70. Comment: PDVSA.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·    The ECB kept the interest rate unchanged and intended to purchase assets. ·    US initial jobless claims declined by 10 thousand to 278 thousand claims during the last week.   Debt Market ·    Most members of OPEC do not expect the price to plunge lower than $75 a barrel in 2014. According to our estimation, if the market approaches this price level, then the pressure of some member-countries of OPEC will affect the budget, for example, the budget of Venezuela.   Comments ·    The bonds of the Venezuela’s oil and gas company PDVSA nominated in USD have already showed a rise in yield, varying from 21% to 40% in mid-October and plunged also so quickly. We recommend investors to follow the OPEC meeting scheduled for November 27, where the quota for oil production will be on the agenda.
November 06, 2014
UFS IC Severstal reduced the net debt manifold. Gazprom placed one-year Eurobonds at 4.45% in USD. Comment: Severstal.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         The euro lost in value on the weak statistical data from the euro zone and in the expectations of new incentives by the ECB. ·         According to Rosstat, the increase of the consumer prices in Russia amounted to 0.8% in October. ·         The Bank of Russia decided to limit the volume on interventions, when the upper boundary of the currency corridor is reached $350 million.   Debt Market ·         The corporate segment declined owing to verbal speculations on imposing tightened sanctions by the EU against Russia. ·         Today the short-term interest rate set by the ECB will be announced at 3: 45 p. m. The forecast stands at 0.05%, the previous value amounted to 0.05%. Then the ECB press conference will take place. ·         We expect an increased market dynamics in the afternoon.   Comments ·         Net loss of Severstal in compliance with IFRS amounted to $807 million in 9M 2014 versus the income worth $157 million in 9M 2013. The company plans to pay in advance $457 million of bank loans maturing in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Net debt reduced by 79.2% to $775 million as of September 30, 2014 against $3.74 billion as of September 30, 2013. Net debt decreased by 74.8% q-o-q from $3.08 billion to $775 million. At the same time, the company notes that the net debt will be risen after the 9M 2014 dividends of more than $1 billion will be paid out. We decided to close the profitable position in CHMFRU-18. As we have earlier written, the spread between CHMFRU-18 and NLMKRU-18 reduced almost to 0. We do not rule out that we will open this position again in a short period of time.
Eurasian Development Bank Activities of development banks in Eurasian countries.
Information digest (October 2014)
November 05, 2014
ROSBANK Eco Analysis - Russia: Central Bank of Russia spurs FX market reform
UFS IC Gazprom received the first tranche from Naftogaz. The European Commission stated the deterioration of the economic forecast. Comments: Gazprom.
Description
Global Markets and Macroeconomic News ·         The ISM PMI in the USA rose by 2.4 p. to 59.0 p. ·         Investors gingerly follow the results of the elections to the US Senate. ·         Today APEC summit has started and will last until November 11.   Debt Market ·         Today the trading session will be volatile. Investors will focus on the data on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 4:15 pm (Moscow time) and the data on the ISM Services PMI at 6 pm (Moscow time).   Comments ·         Gazprom confirmed the receipt of the first tranche worth $1.45 billion from Ukraine’s Naftogaz for the earlier delivered and non-paid gas volume. The second tranche amounting to $1.65 billion is expected by the end of 2014. The news is positive for the Gazprom Eurobonds. 
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