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  • Alfa Bank
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Source Research
June 11, 2004
Raiffeisen Bank Russian Weekly Monitor: The global environment is currently not particularly supportive of
Russian assets.
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS The latest developments in the banking sector have impacted all financial market segments, as two associated banks have collapsed. The situation can be readily resolved, however, and we don\'t anticipate any snowball effect. According to the latest data from Goskomstat, inflation crept up 0.7% month-on-month in May, which is slightly lower than April\'s rise of 1.0%. FIXED INCOME & FX MARKETS Last week the Eurobond market demonstrated mixed dynamics, with prices for sovereigns hovering in the range of -0.3-0.7%, while the EMBI Global Russia sovereign spread contracted by 9 bps over the week. Corporate papers shed 0-2.0%, with banking and MTS issues suffering the greatest declines. Sovereign rouble bonds declined by -0.3-2.0%, with average weekly turnover remaining at 1.6 Rub bln. Regional rouble bonds declined by 0.5-2.0% over the week, with average weekly turnover falling by 13% to the level of 920 Rub mln while corporate rouble bonds fell by 0.2-0.9% w-o-w for first-tier bonds and by 0-2.0% for second and the third-tier papers.
June 07, 2004
Sberbank CIB Fixed Income Weekly: Next week, Russia\'s Eurobonds are likely to dance to the tune of the US Treasuries. A rise in price of these may also create demand for corporate Eurobonds
External Debt Last week was a quiet one for the external debt market, which was closed for business on Monday due to a public holiday in the US and the UK. Many players were hanging back in anticipation of the key macroeconomic figures due out today. These could help to gauge the movements of the US Treasuries, and thus emerging market bonds, over the coming weeks. Ahead of the release of the figures, investors opted for the more highly rated, more liquid bonds, which in this case are the Sovereign Eurobonds (especially the Russia 30) and Gazpromнs long papers (redeemable in 2013 and 2034), whose prices were slightly volatile on average turnover. Meanwhile, Sibneftнs Eurobonds spiked slightly. Following S&Pнs decision to lower their rating, the papers had plummeted in the last days of May, but this was seemingly an overreaction that then corrected itself somewhat. Next week, Russiaнs Eurobonds are likely to dance to the tune of the US Treasuries. A rise in price of these may also create demand for corporate Eurobonds.
June 02, 2004
Alfa Bank Fixed Income Market Weekly: Volatility will remain high on the market up until the U.S. non-farm payrolls data release on Friday
GKO-OFZ market From Wednesday onwards, an upward price trend is likely to set in on the GKO-OFZ market. The increase in liquidity at the beginning of the month and the redemption of OFZ 27013 will boost buying of ruble-denominated government bonds. BUY: OFZs with durations longer than 4 years Eurobond market The key event for world debt markets will be the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May, which will be released on Friday. Volatility will remain high on the market up until then. HOLD current positions Market of corporate and municipal Eurobonds Continuing negative news surrounding Yukos caused a widening of the spreads between the corporate and sovereign segments of the external debt market. BUY: UralSib Eurobonds by selling NIKoil Eurobonds
May 28, 2004
Raiffeisen Bank Russian Weekly Monitor: SPECIAL FOCUS: President Putin’s annual address to parliament
SPECIAL FOCUS: President Putin’s annual address to parliament outlined the government’s short-term objectives and provided a broader overview of the Kremlin’s strategic vision for the next four years.
May 25, 2004
Alfa Bank Fixed Income Market Weekly: Price consolidation will continue at current levels on the sovereign
Eurobond market.
GKO-OFZ market Prices will decline slightly on the GKO-OFZ market, under pressure from the liquidity deficit. There are no payments on GKO-OFZ or auctions scheduled for this week, so volatility will be low. BUY: OFZs 45001 and 46001 by SELLING issues with similar durations Eurobond market Price consolidation will continue at current levels on the sovereign Eurobond market. Volatility is likely to increase on Thursday-Friday, when a range of important U.S. macro data will be released. HOLD: current portfolio Market of corporate and municipal Eurobonds The spread between corporate and sovereign issues shrank by 20-30 bpts to a normal level. Consequently, this segment is no longer undervalued, and corporate eurobonds will follow sovereign debt. BUY: Gazprom-13, Severstal-14
May 24, 2004
Raiffeisen Bank Russian Weekly Monitor: Eurobond market remains highly sensitive to the global environment - in particular, the Fed’s decision on interest rates
• The Russian Eurobond market experienced an upturn correction over the past week, with most issues enjoying price increases. This is, however, only a mild correction in the wake of the recent plunge and the Eurobond market remains highly sensitive to the global environment - in particular, the Fed’s decision on interest rates. • At the same time, rouble bonds were sluggish last week, responding to a combination of both global market and rouble-dollar rate uncertainty.
April 16, 2004
Raiffeisen Bank The CBR’s exchange rate policy – news and views
Events on Russia’s foreign exchange market took centre stage over the past several days, as news of a shift in the Central Bank’s policy reverberated across all financial market segments. After emphasizing the need to control rouble appreciation, the Central Bank allowed the rouble to drop by 10 kopecks in comparison with its average level over previous weeks. The recent volatility on the FX market was incited by a statement from CBR head Sergey Ignatiev in an interview with Vedomosti on April 12, which came right on the heels of his meeting with President Putin the day before. Commenting on the Central Bank’s two primary targets – inflation and the exchange rate – Ignatiev expressed concern that the domestic currency was appreciating too rapidly. He reiterated his goal of containing real effective appreciation within the range of 3-5% by year-end, with 7% as the upper limit. At the same time, Ignatiev expressed confidence that inflation would not speed up due to the growth of money demand in Russia.
April 13, 2004
Raiffeisen Bank Mobile TeleSystems - Company update
• MTS has posted another year of confident growth. In2003 the mobile operator retained its leadership in termsof subscriber base and kept its Russian market share of37% intact. During 2003 MTS managed to augment thenumber of its subscribers by 151.5% y-o-y to 16.8 mlnusers. Pouncing on expenses and taking advantage of thesynergistic benefits gleaned from economies of scale inthe booming Russian regional and Ukrainian marketsallowed the operator to significantly improve its 2003EBITDA margin to 52.6%. • The Ukrainian subsidiary UMC contributes a fifth of MTS’subscriber base and revenues, while a lower rate ofmobile penetration compared to Russia leaves ampleroom for growth in the country. With Turkcell joining thecompetition via DCC, the Ukrainian market should swelleven faster. • After the company attains a more mature stage ofregional expansion by 2005, we expect operating cashflows to exceed funds required for financing capitalexpenditures. The difference might be potentially used forexpansion into new markets, increasing dividends orconstruction of 3G networks in the longer-term. • On the downside, a larger drop in ARPU resulting fromstiffer competition could dent revenues, against thebackground of potentially higher advertising, sales andmarketing expenses. While this would impact thecompany’s margins, it is less likely to occur while themarket is still expanding.
April 07, 2004
Bank Trust Wimm-Bill-Dann: Reasons for Optimism
We are revising our recommendation on the WBD 2008 Eurobond from Market Perform to Market Outperform. We feel that the WBD 2008 is attractive based on its low cash price and the fact that current price levels already take into account the negative news related to weaker operating results, loss of the market share in the juice market and deteriorating credit fundamentals for 2003. We believe that current price levels of the WBD 2008 provide a good buying opportunity, as we expect 2004 to bring improved operating and credit performance.
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