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Research and analytics

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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin (Russian only)
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
  • Region BC
  • ROSBANK
  • URALSIB Capital
  • Veles Capital
  • VTB Capital
  • AK BARS Bank
  • Alfa-Capital
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  • Bondybox
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  • Centre of Development Institute
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  • Gazprombank
  • IC RUSS-INVEST
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  • Investcafe
  • Ivolga Capital
  • KIT Finance
  • Nordea Bank
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  • Otkrytie Brokerage House
  • Price Center «Cbonds Valuation»
  • Promsvyaz, Ltd.
  • Raiffeisen Capital Asset Management Company
  • RANEPA
  • RUSIPOTEKA
  • Russian Agricultural Bank
  • Russian University of Economics
  • Sberbank Asset Management
  • Septem Capital
  • The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting
  • Tinkoff Bank
  • UniService Capital
  • Uralsib Bank
  • Zerich Capital Management
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Source Research
January 23, 2020
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russian Macro: Strong Surpluses to Weaken, Growth to Strengthen
Description
The federal budget posted a surplus of R1,967 trln or 1.8% of GDP, in line with expectations. Total revenues reached nearly R20.2 trln. Revenue collection was particularly strong in December as the non-oil-and-gas revenues increased by around 29% y-o-y, while in 2019 as a whole they were up by 17.4%. Current account also remained strong, albeit less than expected. There is still plenty of room for further government stimulus to the economy without jeopardizing the budget. Very strong revenue collection from the non-oil-and-gas segments of the economy amid decelerated inflation (to 3.0% y-o-y in December 2019) may hint that the economic growth in the country was not so poor as official statistics indicated. A rather high level of the non-oil-and-gas revenues in 2019 should set a good base for revenues in 2020, which will keep growing, albeit more moderately. Composition of recently appointed new government resembles a kind of an acceptable balance between the guardians of fiscal conservatism (such as Finance minister Anton Siluanov, who no longer keeps the position of the First deputy PM) and the new First deputy PM Andrei Belousov who previously served as economics advisor to president and is known as an advocate of a view that the government should play a greater role in the economy. GKEM Analytica reports have become paid starting Jan 1, 2020.For subscription, please contact us at research@gkem-analytica.com
January 15, 2020
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 10, 2020
Cbonds Group CBONDS GLOBAL MONTHLY NEWSLETTER ISSUE STATISTICS AND LEAGUE TABLES for December 2019
“Research and analytics” section shows daily analytical commentary, weekly and special reviews from leading investment banks on the following topics: macroeconomics, money market, bonds and international bonds, syndicated loans and promissory notes. Comments can be searched by topic, source, key words, and review publication frequency. It is possible to set automatic e-mail sending of required comments from a certain source.
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