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Research and analytics

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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
  • Region BC
  • ROSBANK
  • Sberbank CIB
  • URALSIB Capital
  • Veles Capital
  • VTB Capital
  • AK BARS Bank
  • Alfa-Capital
  • Bank Saint Petersburg
  • BCS Global markets
  • Cbonds EM
  • Cbonds Group
  • Cbonds Research
  • Cbonds Review
  • CoLTI
  • DOM.RF
  • EMPP
  • Gazprombank
  • GfK Rus
  • GLOBEXBANK
  • IC RUSS-INVEST
  • IFC Solid
  • IG UNIVER
  • Investcafe
  • KIT Finance
  • Legal capital partners
  • Nordea Bank
  • Otkrytie Brokerage House
  • PFL Advisors
  • Price Center «Cbonds Valuation»
  • Promsvyaz, Ltd.
  • Raiffeisen Capital Asset Management Company
  • RUSIPOTEKA
  • Sberbank Asset Management
  • Septem Capital
  • UniService Capital
  • Zerich Capital Management
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Source Research
February 15, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 14, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Forecasting Russia: Lost in Uncertainty
Description
Last week Rosstat published quite unexpected statistics on Russia’s economic performance in 2018 which even exceeded a rather optimistic estimate of the 2018 GDP growth released few days earlier by the Economics ministry. The 2.3% real GDP growth indicated by Rosstat came as a big surprise. A much better reported performance in 2018 still leaves unanswered the question about the 2019 growth trajectory – it is not clear if the economy is decelerating, accelerating or just drifting sideways. The CBR did not change its growth outlook for this year and expects the economy to expand 1.2-1.7%. The impact of increased VAT on inflation was limited in January as inflation reached just 1.0% m-o-m and fell to a more usual 0.1% w-o-w in the past three weeks, while the CBR expected the effect to last longer. Even though it is likely that the Russian inflation will decelerate faster than the CBR anticipates and may fall below 4.5% already by year-end, the regulator, lost in overall uncertainty, will remain cautious with regard to key policy rate cuts this year, which will not come until autumn (other factors being equal). FX interventions stipulated by the fiscal rule will continue to offset the high policy rate, which will enable the economy to muddle through.
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 13, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 12, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 11, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 08, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 07, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 06, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 05, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
February 04, 2019
Cbonds EM CBONDS GLOBAL MONTHLY NEWSLETTER ISSUE STATISTICS AND LEAGUE TABLES for January 2019
February 01, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 31, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 30, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russian New Normal: Eternal Pressure instead of External Shocks
Description
Russia’s economic future looks not very straightforward not least due to constantly emerging statistical puzzles, which are not easy to decipher. In some sense the country remains in kind of “statistical shadows” as statistical data often look mutually inconsistent and are being permanently revised. The investor sentiment remained quite negative not just because of the fact that occasional external shocks evolved into eternal pressure on Russia, but also due to the country’s statistically poor track record of responding to this pressure. Indeed, initially published statistics looked unimpressive, growth numbers have been revised up quite often while in later periods. The fiscal conservatism of the Russian government in great part also originated from unimpressive statistics and pessimistic expectations. Relative monetary tightening (meaning increased key policy rate in real terms) combined with tightening on the expenditure side of federal budget was one of the reasons of poor economic performance as macroeconomic tightening was not offset by regulatory easing. As Russia’s fiscal situation currently looks solid, it seems likely that the government may take this opportunity to stimulate the economy by spending more than the current version of the three-year rolling budget plan stipulates. As a large part of the private business remains cautious with regard to investment in new production capacity, a less conservative government spending policy may indeed become the only factor to support economic growth. After a decade of muddling through, a decent rate of economic growth becomes vital for Russia.
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 29, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 28, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 25, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 24, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 23, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Economic Growth: Economy to Lose Momentum Amid Unconvincing Politics
Description
The start of the year 2018 was rather encouraging; however, many economies enjoyed the second half of the year not quite as much as the first one. The weakening overall economic performance and deteriorated investor sentiment were reflected by the decline of commodity prices, including energy and industrial metals. The ongoing US – China trade disputes, the deadlock between Conservatives and Labor as part of the Brexit saga, the “gilets jaunes” – Macron standoff in France, the grotesque vaudeville performed by Democrats and Republicans in the US accompanied by mutual accusations, continuous reshufflings in the administration and the recent shutdown of the government, is not what would be supportive for global economic growth as these events keep uncertainty in major countries artificially elevated. It looks likely that politics will continue to affect the global economy – particularly if one considers the relations between the US, the European Union and China. These three mono-currency areas represent around 62% of the global GDP and largely determine the global economic trends. It looks as though the year 2019 is not going to be better than 2018 – neither with regard to political and geopolitical sentiment, nor with regard to economic growth. Russia, as part of the global story, will obviously feel the pain of the global trade cycle slowdown. Hence it is hard to expect any boost for the economy from the external side. Overall, there is clear indication that Russia is already gradually shifting toward reliance on its own resources and it will be forced to do so even more.
January 22, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 21, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 18, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
January 17, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
“Research and analytics” section shows daily analytical commentary, weekly and special reviews from leading investment banks on the following topics: macroeconomics, money market, bonds and international bonds, syndicated loans and promissory notes. Comments can be searched by topic, source, key words, and review publication frequency. It is possible to set automatic e-mail sending of required comments from a certain source.
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