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Research and analytics

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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
  • Region BC
  • ROSBANK
  • Sberbank CIB
  • URALSIB Capital
  • Veles Capital
  • VTB Capital
  • AK BARS Bank
  • Alfa-Capital
  • Bank Saint Petersburg
  • BCS Global markets
  • Cbonds EM
  • Cbonds Group
  • Cbonds Research
  • Cbonds Review
  • Centre of Development Institute
  • CoLTI
  • EMPP
  • Gazprombank
  • GfK Rus
  • GLOBEXBANK
  • IC RUSS-INVEST
  • IFC Solid
  • IG UNIVER
  • Investcafe
  • KIT Finance
  • Nordea Bank
  • NPF Blagosostoyanie
  • Otkrytie Brokerage House
  • PFL Advisors
  • Price Center «Cbonds Valuation»
  • Promsvyaz, Ltd.
  • RANEPA
  • RUSIPOTEKA
  • Sberbank Asset Management
  • Septem Capital
  • The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting
  • UniService Capital
  • Zerich Capital Management
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April 19, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 18, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 17, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 16, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia’s Monetary Policy: Earlier Rate Cut Becoming Likely
Description
The federal budget execution was very strong in 1Q19, particularly in March, as the budget surplus reached nearly R0.546 trln even though expenditures were almost in line with the plan (22,4% of the annual amount). It is very likely that the federal budget surplus may well exceed R1.932 trln which will encourage the government to amend this year’s budget and spend more as unwarranted spending conservatism leaves many government controlled segments of the underfinanced, and many ambitious projects are being permanently delayed – for instance, in natural sciences and space research. One of the most peculiar ideas of the Ministry of Finance is to be a very active net borrower on the local market while running the budget surplus. The roots of this idea are traced back to 2012-2013 when the government had already orchestrated a similar exercise, crowding out other borrowers and causing interest rates to rise. As FX interventions are unlikely to fully offset sterilization of liquidity originating on Minfin’s side, chances are growing that the CBR will be forced to act by cutting the key rate earlier than currently expected.
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 15, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 12, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 11, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 10, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 09, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia's Growth: Economic Growth in 2019 May Exceed [Low] Expectations Again
Description
Rosstat recently published revised quarterly national accounts data, which are supposed to match the surprising 2.3% annual 2018 GDP growth released earlier. Quarterly GDP numbers indicate that, according to the latest Rosstat data, the y-o-y GDP growth accelerated in 2018. February statistics, however, indicated that the economic growth in the early 2019 has either decelerated or remained drifting sideways - depending on the segment of the economy. In the absence of statistics for 1Q19 as a whole it is not easy to draw a clear line between deceleration and drifting sideways in case of an aggregate output - overall, such developments were not unexpected. If the economy is still moving sideways along the level reached in 2Q14, the GDP growth in 2019 could be probably higher than the commonly accepted rate around 1.5%. Meanwhile, the World Bank recently downgraded its 2018 Russia’s GDP growth forecast to 1.4% due to the “lower price of oil” (which always serves as very popular traditional explanation). It cannot be ruled out that the economic growth will be around 2% in 2019 (and possibly even a bit more) which will mean that economy is decelerating only slightly and this deceleration will look more as drifting sideways and can be considered as a kind of muddling through amid the global economic uncertainty and the mounting pressure on Russia from the US.
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 08, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 05, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 04, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 03, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 02, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
April 01, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 29, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 28, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 27, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 26, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 25, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 22, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 21, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
March 20, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
“Research and analytics” section shows daily analytical commentary, weekly and special reviews from leading investment banks on the following topics: macroeconomics, money market, bonds and international bonds, syndicated loans and promissory notes. Comments can be searched by topic, source, key words, and review publication frequency. It is possible to set automatic e-mail sending of required comments from a certain source.
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