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Research and analytics

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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
  • Region BC
  • ROSBANK
  • URALSIB Capital
  • Veles Capital
  • VTB Capital
  • AK BARS Bank
  • Alfa-Capital
  • Bank Saint Petersburg
  • BCS Global markets
  • Bondybox
  • Cbonds EM
  • Cbonds Group
  • Cbonds Research
  • Cbonds Review
  • Centre of Development Institute
  • CoLTI
  • EMPP
  • EXIAR
  • Fincastle
  • Gazprombank
  • GLOBEXBANK
  • IC RUSS-INVEST
  • IFC Solid
  • IG UNIVER
  • Investcafe
  • Ivolga Capital
  • KIT Finance
  • Nordea Bank
  • NPF Blagosostoyanie
  • Otkrytie Brokerage House
  • Price Center «Cbonds Valuation»
  • Promsvyaz, Ltd.
  • RANEPA
  • RUSIPOTEKA
  • Russian Agricultural Bank
  • Sberbank Asset Management
  • Septem Capital
  • The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting
  • UniService Capital
  • Zerich Capital Management
  • Российский экономический университет
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October 16, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
October 14, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
October 11, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Russia’s Monetary Policy: Priorities to be Reconsidered Amid Decelerating Inflation, Slow Growth
Description
As in early October the w-o-w inflation did not move to a positive territory for another week and remained at zero, it became almost certain that inflation is going to get closer to 3.0% rather than to 4.0% this year, i. e. it will be well below the CBR target. It cannot be ruled out that inflation could also stay around 3.0% next year. Hence the question, what the CBR will do with its key rate if it happens to be the case. Russia’s 7% key rate looks unnecessarily high in this environment as it keeps OFZ yields elevated – around 6.4-6.5% for the paper with shortest maturity, around 7% for ten-year OFZ and closer to 8% in the very long end of the curve, which looks too much for a twin-surplus economy. Respectively, borrowing costs are even higher for other borrowers such as consumers and corporations. Slowing inflation, a lack of economic growth, high costs of borrowing and unnecessary spending of budget funds on debt servicing combined with global easing may encourage the CBR not to simply continue series of key rate cuts, but to reconsider the “foundations” of its monetary policy sooner rather than later.
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
October 10, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
October 09, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions
Description
The Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going to benefit not only from some additional government spending on various national projects, but also from less distorted environment on the money markets, including elevated interest rates and the fact that money market rates are below the key rate. The latter implies banks have no demand for refinancing from the CBR. A much smaller surplus will discourage Minfin from pumping unnecessary cash into the system – even though the Ministry will keep buying FX, there will be less spare cash to deposit in banks. Moreover, assuming a lower oil price, Minfin’s interventions on the FX market are set to subside which will cause a convergence between the key rate and the money market rates. In such an environment banks’ demand for the CBR refinancing may start growing, which in turn may increase the banks’ demand for OFZs, i.e. collateral with no haircut. Even though next year’s government borrowing program looks quite ambitions, it will be supported by the demand from banks.
October 04, 2019
Cbonds EM CBONDS GLOBAL MONTHLY NEWSLETTER ISSUE STATISTICS AND LEAGUE TABLES for September 2019
October 02, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
October 01, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Budget 2020: Smaller Surplus – Fewer Distortions
Description
The Russian Ministry of Finance released an updated draft version of a three-year rolling budget, which indicates a shift from a kind of austerity and strong federal budget surplus toward a more generous spending policy, which should be generally supportive for economic growth. The economy is going to benefit not only from some additional government spending on various national projects, but also from less distorted environment on the money markets, including elevated interest rates and the fact that money market rates are below the key rate. The latter implies banks have no demand for refinancing from the CBR. A much smaller surplus will discourage Minfin from pumping unnecessary cash into the system – even though the Ministry will keep buying FX, there will be less spare cash to deposit in banks. Moreover, assuming a lower oil price, Minfin’s interventions on the FX market are set to subside which will cause a convergence between the key rate and the money market rates. In such an environment banks’ demand for the CBR refinancing may start growing, which in turn may increase the banks’ demand for OFZs, i.e. collateral with no haircut. Even though next year’s government borrowing program looks quite ambitions, it will be supported by the demand from banks.
September 27, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 26, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 24, 2019
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Macro/Strategy: Making Russia’s economy safe again
Description
§ Economic growth is weak, but not as weak as statistics currently show … … 1H19 GDP growth numbers may be revised up, … … as on many occasions in the past, including 2018 § Inflation decelerated much faster than the authorities initially expected and, by year-end, may fall below 3.5% – well below the CBR’s target o   CBR should continue to shift away from its extra hawkish interest policy § Finance Ministry made major progress in terms of primary OFZ placements in 2019 and fulfilled the bulk of the borrowing program in 1H19 o   R1.6trln was placed in Ruble Sovereigns in 8M of the year o   Foreign investors expressed the greatest demand for OFZ Economic growth is weak, but statistics may be revised up Very strong tax collection from the non-oil segments of the economy and falling inflation (far lower than the increased VAT was expected to deliver) may confirm that economic performance overall is not as bad as GDP numbers suggest. In fact, the statistics may still be revised up, as on several occasions in the past, including 2018. Decelerating consumer demand, however, remains the weakest part of Russia’s story. CBR set to continue rate cuts, amid lower inflation and dovish foreign CBs Amid rapidly falling inflation in Russia and ongoing monetary easing in Europe and the US, the CBR now has more incentives to cut the key rate – overly high rates remain an impediment for growth. However, as global monetary easing gathers pace, the expected easing by the CBR is likely to only preserve the status quo on domestic interest rates between Russia and some other markets. Room for improvement; govt policy set to become more growth focused The ‘unfavorable’ external environment, such as perpetual sanctions, has little to do with weakening consumer demand. Therefore, Russia’s economic policy (on the macro side in particular) still has very strong potential to improve. The government’s macroeconomic policy is set to gradually become more growth oriented – low debt, strong balance sheets (such as the budget and the current account) and a more stable and convincing rate of economic growth will make Russia safe again from an economic point of view. OFZ yield could compress, but may be limited by ambitious borrowing Demand for ruble bonds is likely to be supported in the coming months (and potentially in 2020) by the potential revision of the ‘neutral’ range for the CBR’s policy rate and the continuous deceleration of inflation, while the limited supply of bonds through end-2019 may lead to downward movement of the yield curve. That said, the OFZ issuance program for 2020 is ambitious and may be difficult for the Finance Ministry to fulfil if foreign demand declines – a potential revision of the ‘fiscal rule’ may make the government’s task easier.
September 23, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 20, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 19, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 18, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
September 17, 2019
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
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